中国气象科学研究院祝从文团队近日取得一项新成果。经过不懈努力，他们的研究揭示了近二十年来，东亚夏季风在东北亚地区增强。相关论文发表在2024年5月9日出版的《大气科学进展》杂志上。

据介绍，2000年以后，东亚夏季风在东北亚（NEA）呈现出增强趋势，夏季降水增加，雨季推迟。

研究人员基于1979-2022年的数据进行分析，结果表明，降水的增加与7-8月蒙古气旋(MC)的增强有关，该气旋是欧亚正压Rossby波列的一部分。这一波列受北大西洋（NA）海温（SST）异常的调节，并因NA的SST升高而被放大。而9月雨季推迟则与俄罗斯远东千岛群岛(ACKI)反气旋增强有关。

ACKI反气旋起源于北极地区，可能是由东西伯利亚海海冰减少引起的，可提前2个月检测到。2000年以来，强MC和强ACKI通过上升运动和水汽供应共同导致东亚夏季风在NEA的增强。因此，NA的SST异常是NEA雨季降水增强的原因，东西伯利亚海海冰为预测雨季的退缩提供了潜在的支撑。

附：英文原文

Title: Enhanced East Asian Summer Monsoon over Northeast Asia in Recent Two Decades

Author: Song Jiang, Shuangmei Ma, Congwen Zhu, Boqi Liu, Ting Wang, Wanyi Sun

Issue&Volume: 2024-05-09

Abstract: The East Asian summer monsoon in Northeast Asia (NEA) shows an enhanced trend with increased summer rainfall and delayed rainy season after 2000. Based on the data analyses during 1979–2022, our results show that the increased rainfall amount is associated with the enhancement of Mongolian cyclone (MC) in July–August, as a portion of the Eurasian barotropic Rossby wave train. This wave train is regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in North Atlantic (NA), amplified by the increased warming SST in NA. While the delayed rainy season in September is related to the enhanced anticyclone over the Kuril Islands (ACKI) in Russian Far East. The anticyclone originated from Arctic region, which is possibly induced by the Sea-Ice loss in the East Siberian Sea, which can be detected 2-months in advance. The stronger MC and ACKI jointly resulted in the enhanced East Asian summer monsoon in NEA since 2000, via the ascending motion and moisture supply. Therefore, the SST anomaly in NA is responsible for the intensified rainfall in rainy season in NEA, and the Sea-Ice in the East Siberian Sea provides a potential source for the prediction of rainy season retreat.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3370-0

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-3370-0viewType=HTML