中国科学院大学张永小组取得一项新突破。他们报道了公元241-1912年中国河西走廊地区干湿年际变化与游牧战争的关系。相关论文发表在2024年5月6日出版的《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

本文研究了自公元241年以来，中国河西走廊地区气候对战争的影响。研究人员使用树木年轮资料与历史战争资料数据进行年代叠加分析，发现河西走廊地区干湿年际变化与游牧民族发动的战争具有显著的相关性。然而，这种关系是动态的，并受到该地区相对统一的影响。在河西走廊被多个政权统治的时期，战争往往伴随着干旱的气候条件，这可能是由于在这些时期异常的干旱可能加剧了对资源和土地的竞争。

相反，在地区统一时期，当气候条件潮湿时，战争更有可能发生，因为牧场的扩张和资源的积累有助于游牧民族向外征服。这些发现强调了战争和气候变化之间关系的复杂性。为了更全面地了解这种关系，需要在多个地区提供覆盖范围更广、更均匀的高分辨率历史温度和湿度数据集。此外，收集和审查具有鲜明特征的地区的分类历史战争数据是必不可少的。

附：英文原文

Title: The relationship between interannual dry/wet changes and nomadic wars in the Hexi Corridor region of China during the period 241–1912 A.D.

Author: Fei TANG, Zhilin SHI, Qinhua TIAN, Xiaogang DU, Yong ZHANG

Issue&Volume: 2024/05/06

Abstract: The link between climate and war has long been a topic of great scientific and social interest. In this study, we investigate the influence of climate on warfare in China’s Hexi Corridor region since 241 A.D. Using the superposed epoch analysis of tree-ring data and historical war data, we observe a notable correlation between interannual dry-wet variations and wars instigated by nomadic groups in the Hexi Corridor. However, this relationship is dynamic and influenced by the region’s relative unity. During periods in which the Hexi Corridor was ruled by multiple regimes, wars tended to follow dry climatic conditions, which may be due to the fact that unusual drought during these periods likely heightened competition for resources and land. Conversely, during times of regional unity, wars were more likely to occur when climatic conditions were wet because the expansion of rangelands and the accumulation of resources helped fuel the nomads’ outward conquest. These findings underscore the complexity of the relationship between war and climate change. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of this relationship, continuous, high-resolution historical temperature and humidity datasets with broader and more uniform coverage are needed across multiple regions. In addition, collecting and examining disaggregated historical war data for regions with distinct characteristics is essential.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1296-9

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-023-1296-9