基于广泛的模型相互比较，研究人员评估了生物多样性和生态系统服务，在历史重建和未来土地利用与气候变化情景中的趋势。根据一系列指标估算，20世纪全球生物多样性下降了2%到11%。提供的生态系统服务增加了数倍，而调节服务则适度减少。
展望未来，可持续发展政策有可能减缓因土地使用变化，和对提供服务的需求而造成的生物多样性损失，同时减少或扭转调节服务的减少。然而，气候变化对生物多样性的负面影响似乎会增加，尤其是在高排放情景下。这些评估确定了建模中仍然存在的不确定性，但也有力地表明，要实现《生物多样性公约》的目标，还需要在政策方面做出新的努力。
附：英文原文
Title: Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050
Author: Henrique M. Pereira, Inês S. Martins, Isabel M. D. Rosa, HyeJin Kim, Paul Leadley, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, George Hurtt, Luise Quoss, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Michel Bakkenes, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Moreno Di Marco, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Carlos A. Guerra, Michael Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Florian Humpender, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Tetsuya Matsui, Johan R. Meijer, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Adriana De Palma, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Josef Settele, Richard Sharp, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Matthew V. Talluto, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, Rob Alkemade
Issue&Volume: 2024-04-26
Abstract: Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
DOI: adn3441
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adn3441