近日，北京大学胡永云团队在研究整个显生宙全球平均降水量的定量估算中取得新进展。相关论文于2024年3月5日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》上。

研究人员首次提出了估计显生宙GMP的研究。通过分析耦合模型比对项目(CMIP6)第6阶段中23个模型的数据，以研究全球平均地表温度(GMST)与全球平均地表温度(GMP)的关系。结果表明，温度对降水的影响一致且显著，敏感性范围为2-3% k^-1。此外，研究人员还提出了一种以陆地面积分布和古-Koppen气候带引起的降水纬度变化。这些气候带是根据煤、蒸发岩和冰川沉积物等地质指标确定的。

因此，研究通过结合GMST、陆地面积分布和古-Koppen气候带（从540Ma至今）的变化对GMP进行了定量评估。定量GMP曲线显示，GMP的波动约为500mm yr^-1。显生宙时期的取值范围为948-1442mm yr^-1。该曲线与数值模拟的结果非常吻合。研究结果强调，本文提出的古降水变化有助于更全面地了解相互关联的地质和古气候发展。

据了解，定量估算整个地球历史上的全球平均降水(GMP)，对于增强打讲对长期气候演变和水文循环的理解至关重要。然而，目前还没有确定的估算全球平均古降水量的方法。

附：英文原文

Title: Quantitative estimation of global mean precipitation throughout the Phanerozoic era

Author: Xiujuan BAO, Yongyun HU

Issue&Volume: 2024/03/05

Abstract: Quantitatively estimating the global mean precipitation (GMP) throughout Earth’s history is crucial for enhancing our understanding of long-term climate evolution and the hydrological cycle. However, currently there is no established methodology for estimating global mean paleoprecipitation. Here, we present the first study that estimates GMP in the Phanerozoic era. The relationship between GMP and global mean surface temperature (GMST) is investigated by analyzing data from 23 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The result reveals consistent and significant impact of temperature on precipitation, with a sensitivity range of 2–3%K^-1. Additionally, we propose a method for accessing latitudinal variations in precipitation caused by land area distributions and paleo-Kppen climatic belts. These climatic belts are determined based on geological indicators such as coals, evaporites, and glacial deposits. The GMP is thus quantitatively estimated by combining variations in GMST, land area distributions, and paleo-kppen climatic belts, spanning from 540Ma to the present day. The quantitative GMP curve demonstrates fluctuations in GMP about 500mm yr^-1, with values ranging from 948 to 1442mm yr^-1 over the Phanerozoic era. This curve aligns closely with findings derived from numerical simulations. The presented paleoprecipitation variations facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of the interconnected geological and paleoclimatic developments.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1263-x

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-023-1263-x