中国科学院青藏高原研究所陈学龙团队近日的研究揭示，青藏高原蒸散量呈双倍增长趋势。该项研究成果发表在2024年3月23日出版的《科学通报》上。

估算青藏高原（TP）的蒸散量(ETa)变化对于解决，青藏高原周边数十亿人口的用水需求至关重要。然而，已有研究对TP的ETa估计值具有很大的不确定性。

研究人员探讨了如何更准确地量化ETa的数量并解释其在TP上的变化。基于气候模型模拟、再分析以及地面和卫星观测的综合平均产品，研究人员可以量化和解释TP上的ETa变化。1982至2018年期间，TP的ETa呈显著增加趋势，约为8.4±2.2 mm 10a^-1(平均±1标准差)，约为全球陆地ETa(4.3±2.1 mm 10a^-1)的两倍。

数值归因分析表明，53.8%的TP区域的ETa增加是由温度升高引起的，23.1%是由变暖、冰冻圈融化和降水增加导致的土壤湿度上升引起的。研究结果强调，在未来100年内，全球气温上升在ETa中的作用预示着水循环的持续加速。

附：英文原文

Title: A doubled increasing trend of evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau

Author: anonymous

Issue&Volume: 2024/03/23

Abstract: Estimation of evapotranspiration (ETa) change on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is essential to address the water requirement of billions of people surrounding the TP. Existing studies have shown that ETa estimations on the TP have a very large uncertainty. In this article, we discuss how to more accurately quantify ETa amount and explain its change on the TP. ETa change on the TP can be quantified and explained based on an ensemble mean product from climate model simulations, reanalysis, as well as ground-based and satellite observations. ETa on the TP experienced a significant increasing trend of around 8.4 ± 2.2 mm 10a^-1 (mean ± one standard deviation) during 1982–2018, approximately twice the rate of the global land ETa (4.3 ± 2.1 mm 10a^-1). Numerical attribution analysis revealed that a 53.8% TP area with the increased ETa was caused by increased temperature and 23.1% part was due to soil moisture rising, because of the warming, melting cryosphere, and increased precipitation. The role of the increased temperature in ETa causes a continued acceleration of the water cycle in next 100 years.

DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.03.046

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2095927324002020