近日，中国海洋大学赵进平团队探明了北极海冰面积4-6年的周期变化及其3个主要驱动因素。相关论文于2024年3月19日发表在《大气科学进展》杂志上。

研究使用聚类分析算法，大多数覆盖区域的SIE被划分为两个特殊区域：加拿大海盆周围的区域-1和巴伦支海周围的区域-2，它们位于北极跨极流的两侧。研究人员利用一种被称为运行线性拟合算法的新方法，确定了这两个区域显著的4-6年周期变化。北极SIE的时间变化率与区域气温、北极跨极流海冰面积通量和海冰漂移散度这三个驱动因素有关。

自1979年以来，SIE一直存在4-6年的周期变化，但在以2005年为间隔的重冰和轻冰条件下，SIE对不同因素的响应有所不同。三个因素对两个地区SIE变化的共同贡献分别超过83%和59%，显著反映了它们的动态机制。事实证明，厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)过程与这三个因素密切相关，是北极SIE4-6年周期变化的根本来源。

据研究人员介绍，除了北极海冰范围(SIE)的快速退缩趋势外，该研究还揭示了SIE最突出的低频变化，即4-6年的周期变化。

附：英文原文

Title: 4–6-year Periodic variation of Arctic Sea Ice Extent and its three main driven factors

Author: Ping Chen, Jinping Zhao, Xiaoyu Wang

Issue&Volume: 2024-03-19

Abstract: Besides the rapid retreating trend of Arctic Sea ice extent (SIE), the most outstanding low-frequency variations of SIE were revealed to be 4–6-year period variation by this study. Using a clustering analysis algorithm, SIE in most ice covering region clustered into two special regions: Region-1 around Canadian Basin and Region-2 around Barents Sea, which were located on either side of the Arctic Transpolar Drift. Clear 4–6-year period variation in these two regions was identified using a novel method called running linear fitting algorithm. The time variation rate of the Arctic SIE was related to three driving factors: the regional air temperature, sea ice areal flux across the Arctic Transpolar Drift, and the divergence of sea ice drifting. The 4–6-year period variation was always present since 1979, but SIE responded to different factors under heavy and light ice conditions divided by 2005. The joint contribution of the three factors on SIE variation exceeded 83% and 59% in the two regions, respectively, remarkably reflecting their dynamic mechanism. It is proven that the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process was closely associated with the three factors, being the fundamental source of the 4–6-year period variations of Arctic SIE.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3104-3

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-3104-3viewType=HTML