海河流域地表水资源衰减特征及分布规律，这一成果由中国水利水电科学研究院赵勇团队经过不懈努力而取得。这一研究成果发表在2024年3月13日出版的国际学术期刊《中国科学：地球科学》上。

据研究人员介绍，1956-2016年间，海河流域是中国10个一级流域中地表水资源衰减最严重的流域。基于海河流域地表水循环过程、降水和下垫面演变特征，将海河流域地表水资源衰减原因归结受6个主要影响因素影响，研究分析了各因素的定量贡献，揭示了海河流域地表水资源衰减的四种模式。

研究人员称，其主导因素模式为：1980-2000年与1956-1979年相比，降水量变化是主导因素，贡献每立方米70亿，占总量每立方米117亿的59%；2001-2016年与1956-1979年相比，山麓植被覆盖的增加是主导因素，贡献每立方米27.8亿，占总量每立方米49亿的51%。空间分布模式：2001-2016年与1956-1979年的相比，山区受植被覆盖增加的影响更大，例如，对栾河流域山地中贡献了42%；平原区受农田埂截留的影响较大，北四河流域平原截留比例为51%。

衰减趋势格局：2001-2016年与1980-2000年相比，由于大规模植被恢复耗水量增加，山区地表水资源持续下降，而平原区下垫面变化对地表水资源的影响趋于稳定。可逆性变化模式：在导致地表水资源力衰减的因素中，植被覆盖增加、农田埂截流和城市化扩张等人类活动对地表水资源衰减的贡献率为36%，导致了降水—径流关系的变化。本研究对传统的气候变化与人类活动归因分类模型进行了改进，并基于水循环过程分析了海河流域水资源衰减的原因及贡献，可为海河流域开展水土保持管理提供科学支撑。

附：英文原文

Title: Surface water resource attenuation attribution and patterns in Hai River Basin

Author: Qingming WANG, Yong ZHAO, Hao WANG, Jiaqi ZHAI, Yue ZHANG, Fan HE, Rong LIU, Mengyang MA

Issue&Volume: 2024/03/13

Abstract: From 1956 to 2016, Hai River Basin suffered the most severe surface water resource attenuation among the 10 first-class river basins in China. Based on the surface water circulation process, and evolving characteristics of precipitation and underlying surface in Hai River Basin, this study attributed the causes of surface water resource attenuation to six primary impact factors, analyzed each factor’s quantitative contribution, and revealed four patterns of surface water resource attenuation in Hai River Basin. The pattern of the dominant factor: comparing the 1980–2000 period with the 1956–1979 period, the variation of precipitation is the dominant factor of which contribution is 7 billion m³, accounting for 59% of total 11.7 billion m³; comparing the 2001–2016 period with the 1956–1979 period, the increasing of vegetation cover in mountainous area is the dominant factor of which contribution is 2.78 billion m³, accounting for 51% of total 4.9 billion m³. The pattern of spatial distributions: comparing the 2001–2016 period with the 1956–1979 period, mountainous areas were more affected by increasing vegetation cover which for example contributed 42% in Luan River Basin mountainous; the plains were more impacted by farmland ridge interception which for example contributed 51% in Beisi River Basin plains. The pattern of attenuation trend: comparing the 2001–2016 period with the 1980–2000 period, surface water resources in mountainous areas continued to decline, owing to the increasing water consumption of large-scale vegetation restoration, while the influence of the underlying surface changes on surface water resources in plains areas tended to remain stable. The pattern of reversible change: among factors led to surface water resource attenuation, the human activity, including vegetation cover increase, farmland ridge interception, and urbanization expansion, contributed 36% of the attenuation, which resulted in the variation of precipitation-runoff relation. This study improved the traditional attribution classification model of climate change and human activity and analyzed the causes and contributions of water resource attenuation in Hai River Basin based on the water circulation process, which can provide scientific support for the development of water resource management in the basin.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-023-1268-4

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/10.1007/s11430-023-1268-4