中国科学院青藏高原研究所戴玉凤团队近日的研究发现，西风触发的湖泊效应降雪随着青藏高原气候变暖而增强。相关论文于2024年2月2日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《科学通报》杂志上。

基于卫星观测和再分析资料，研究人员发现，湖泊效应降雪是由西风南移导致气温下降引发的，并与12个大型湖泊(>300 km²)的湖泊面积、风速和经度呈正相关。通过敏感性模型模拟，研究确定2013年青藏高原南部大型湖泊对下风区降雪量的贡献超过50%。预测表明，在未来RCP4.5气候变暖情景下，西风触发的湖泊效应降雪将增加，这突出了制定适应性政策以应对未来湖泊效应降雪日益增长的风险的重要性。

据了解，当冷空气穿过开阔的湖泊时，湖泊效应降雪(LES)就会发生。由于全球变暖加剧导致湖泊扩张加剧，预计湖泊效应降雪在青藏高原上发生的频率更高。因此，迫切需要全面评估湖泊效应降雪与青藏高原之间的关系。

附：英文原文

Title: Westerly-triggered lake-effect snowfall enhanced with climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau

Author: Yufeng Dai, Tao Wang, Yongwei Sheng, Lei Wang, Hongbin Chen, Xiaowen Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Weicai Wang, Junfei Wu , Wenfeng Chen, TandONG yAO

Issue&Volume: 2024/02/02

Abstract: Lake-effect snowfall (LES) occurs when cold air moves across open lakes. LES is expected to occur more frequently over the TP, due to the intensified lake expansion caused by intensified global warming. Thus, there is an urgent need to comprehensively assess the LES over the TP. Here, we revealed that the LES is triggered by westerly southward shift leading to the drop in air temperature and is positively correlated with lake area, wind speed and longitude across 12 large lakes (>300 km²) based on satellite observations and reanalysis data. Using a sensitivity model simulation, we determined that large lakes in the southern TP contributed to more than 50% of the snowfall in the downwind area in 2013. Projections indicate that the westerly-triggered LES will increase under the future RCP4.5 climate warming scenario, highlighting the importance of developing adaptive policies to address the growing risks associated with future LES.

DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.01.042

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2095927324000690