瑞士日内瓦大学Stoffel, Markus的团队在研究受气候变暖驱动的日益不稳定的斜坡岩崩中取得一项新突破。相关论文于2024年2月23日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

研究人员利用Taschgufer（瑞士阿尔卑斯山）过去因岩崩而受损的375棵树的年轮记录，编制了从1920年到2020年冰缘岩崩活动的连续时间序列。研究表明，持续变暖有利于岩崩的释放，岩崩活动的变化与夏季气温在年际间和十年际尺度上显著相关。

随着20世纪初的变暖，岩崩量在20世纪40年代末至50年代初首次增加。从20世纪80年代中期开始，活动达到了前所未有的新水平。这种岩崩活动的长期记录有助于为在有人居住的山区环境中，设计重要的缓解措施和减少风险措施提供信息。

据研究人员介绍，由于气候变暖和永久冻土退化的加速，高山地区的岩崩活动正在发生变化，可能会导致其活动和单次岩崩数量增加。然而，系统性地缺乏对岩崩的长期观察，在很大程度上阻碍了研究人员对气候变暖如何改变活动的深入评估。

附：英文原文

Title: Rockfall from an increasingly unstable mountain slope driven by climate warming

Author: Stoffel, Markus, Trappmann, Daniel G., Coullie, Mattias I., Ballesteros Cnovas, Juan A., Corona, Christophe

Issue&Volume: 2024-02-23

Abstract: Rockfall in high-mountain regions is thought to be changing due to accelerating climate warming and permafrost degradation, possibly resulting in enhanced activity and larger volumes involved in individual falls. Yet the systematic lack of long-term observations of rockfall largely hampers an in-depth assessment of how activity may have been altered by a warming climate. Here we compile a continuous time series from 1920 to 2020 of periglacial rockfall activity using growth-ring records from 375 trees damaged by past rockfall at Taschgufer (Swiss Alps). We show that the ongoing warming favours the release of rockfall and that changes in activity correlate significantly with summer air temperatures at interannual and decadal timescales. An initial increase in rockfall occurred in the late 1940s to early 1950s following early twentieth century warming. From the mid-1980s, activity reached new and hitherto unprecedented levels. This long-term record of rockfall activity can help to inform the design of vital mitigation and risk reduction measures in inhabited mountain environments.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01390-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01390-9