德国维尔茨堡大学Jörg Müller等研究人员发现，天气可解释34年来昆虫生物量的下降和上升。2023年9月27日，《自然》杂志在线发表了这项成果。

研究人员重新分析了Hallmann等人的27年昆虫生物量数据，并使用了取样期间天气条件和昆虫生命周期中天气异常的特定样本信息。该模型完全根据这些天气变量解释了昆虫生物量在时间上的下降变化，包括近年来观察到的生物量增加。研究人员的发现表明，陆生昆虫的生物量在很大程度上受复杂天气条件的驱动，这对以往认为气候变化在热带地区更为关键或温带地区的负面影响可能在未来才会出现的假设提出了挑战。

尽管最近观察到生物量有所增加，但预计在持续的气候变化下，新的多年度不利天气条件组合可能会进一步威胁昆虫种群。这些研究结果还凸显了对受年度气候条件和异常现象影响的生理机制进行更多气候变化研究的必要性。

据介绍，昆虫在生态系统功能中起着举足轻重的作用，因此，近几十年来，中欧和其他地区的保护区内昆虫生物量下降了75%以上，这引起了公众的警觉，推动了决策者并激发了对昆虫种群趋势的研究。然而，人们对导致昆虫数量下降的原因仍不甚了解。

附：英文原文

Title: Weather explains the decline and rise of insect biomass over 34 years

Author: Mller, Jrg, Hothorn, Torsten, Yuan, Ye, Seibold, Sebastian, Mitesser, Oliver, Rothacher, Julia, Freund, Julia, Wild, Clara, Wolz, Marina, Menzel, Annette

Issue&Volume: 2023-09-27

Abstract: Insects have a pivotal role in ecosystem function, thus the decline of more than 75% in insect biomass in protected areas over recent decades in Central Europe1 and elsewhere2,3 has alarmed the public, pushed decision-makers4 and stimulated research on insect population trends. However, the drivers of this decline are still not well understood. Here, we reanalysed 27years of insect biomass data from Hallmann et al.1, using sample-specific information on weather conditions during sampling and weather anomalies during the insect life cycle. This model explained variation in temporal decline in insect biomass, including an observed increase in biomass in recent years, solely on the basis of these weather variables. Our finding that terrestrial insect biomass is largely driven by complex weather conditions challenges previous assumptions that climate change is more critical in the tropics5,6 or that negative consequences in the temperate zone might only occur in the future7. Despite the recent observed increase in biomass, new combinations of unfavourable multi-annual weather conditions might be expected to further threaten insect populations under continuing climate change. Our findings also highlight the need for more climate change research on physiological mechanisms affected by annual weather conditions and anomalies.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06402-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06402-z