德国弗莱堡大学Anja Nlte小组发现，年平均温度超过29℃时，热带重新造林的未来生产力急剧下降。这一研究成果于2023年8月23日发表在国际顶尖学术期刊《科学进展》上。

研究人员使用基于过程的森林生长模型3-PGmix，分析了中美洲热带再造林的未来生产力。在年平均温度约为29°C时，所有热带低地气候带，和五个具有广泛生态特征的树种的生产力急剧持续下降(气温每升高1°C，生产力下降11%)。在高排放情景下(SSP3-7.0)，到本世纪末，干燥的热带重新造林的生产率几乎减半，热带潮湿和雨林地区显示出大约10%的适度损失。

在SSP2-4.5下，热带潮湿和雨林地区稍微减轻，而热带干燥森林地区则表现为中度损失(-17%)。由温度上升引起的蒸气压赤字是增长下降的主要驱动力。因此，继续走高排放道路会降低再造林作为气候行动工具的有效性。

据悉，热带重新造林是碳隔离最有力的工具之一。然而，在预估气候变化的缓解潜力时，往往很少考虑到气候变化对生产力的影响。

附：英文原文

Title: Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature

Author: Anja Nlte, Rasoul Yousefpour, Miguel Cifuentes-Jara, Marc Hanewinkel

Issue&Volume: 2023-08-23

Abstract: Tropical reforestation is among the most powerful tools for carbon sequestration. Yet, climate change impacts on productivity are often not accounted for when estimating its mitigation potential. Using the process-based forest growth model 3-PGmix, we analyzed future productivity of tropical reforestation in Central America. Around 29°C mean annual temperature, productivity sharply and consistently declined (-11% per 1°C of warming) across all tropical lowland climate zones and five tree species spanning a wide range of ecological characteristics. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), productivity of dry tropical reforestation nearly halved and tropical moist and rain forest sites showed moderate losses around 10% by the end of the century. Under SSP2-4.5, tropical moist and rain forest sites were resilient and tropical dry forest sites showed moderate losses (-17%). Increased vapor pressure deficit, caused by increasing temperatures, was the main driver of growth decline. Thus, to continue following high-emission pathways could reduce the effectiveness of reforestation as climate action tool.

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adg9175

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.adg9175