2023年7月10日出版的《美国科学院院刊》杂志发表了科学家的一项最新研究成果。北京大学的胡永云及其团队发现，在Toarcian高温的早期，大气中CO₂含量的增加导致了早期热带气旋强度的增加。

模型结果表明，在早期的Toarcian高温期间，特提斯有两个潜在的风暴发生中心，分布位于特提斯的西北部和东南部。根据经验，伴随着早期的热带高温(约500到1000 ppmv)， CO₂浓度加倍，导致特提斯群岛上更强风暴发生的几率增加，同时也为海岸侵蚀提供了更有利的条件。这些结果很好地匹配了Toarcian高温的早期地质事件中的风暴沉积，并证实了热带气旋强度的增加将伴随着全球变暖。

据介绍，在Toarcian高温的早期(约183 Ma)，特提斯洋周围沉积风暴沉积物的出现表明，热带气旋(TC)活动的增强是对CO₂上升和显著变暖的响应。然而，极端温暖和风暴活动之间的这种假设关系尚未得到验证，热带气旋变化的空间模式尚不清楚。

附：英文原文

Title: Elevated atmospheric CO₂ drove an increase in tropical cyclone intensity during the early Toarcian hyperthermal

Author: Yan, Qing, Li, Xiang, Kemp, David B., Guo, Jiaqi, Zhang, Zhongshi, Hu, Yongyun

Issue&Volume: 2023-7-10

Abstract: The occurrence of sedimentary storm deposits around the Tethys Ocean during the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~183 Ma) suggests that intensified tropical cyclone (TC) activity occurred in response to CO₂ rise and marked warming. However, this hypothesized linkage between extreme warmth and storm activity remains untested, and the spatial pattern of any changes in TCs is unclear. Here, model results show that there were two potential storm genesis centers over Tethys during the early Toarcian hyperthermal located around the northwestern and southeastern Tethys. The empirically determined doubling of CO₂ concentration that accompanied the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~500 to ~1,000 ppmv) leads to increased probability of stronger storms over Tethys, in tandem with more favorable conditions for coastal erosion. These results match well with the geological occurrence of storm deposits during the early Toarcian hyperthermal and confirm that increased TC intensity would have accompanied global warming.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2301018120

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2301018120