意大利伊斯普拉联合研究中心的Caspar T. J. Roebroek和Alessandro Cescatti的研究团队，近日探究了“从人类管理中释放的全球森林，还能储存多少碳？”的问题。2023年5月19日出版的《科学》杂志发表了这项成果。

研究人员将全球森林生物量和管理的地图与机器学习相结合，以表明在当前的气候条件和二氧化碳(CO₂)浓度下，通过消除人为干预，现有的全球森林可以将其地上生物量增加高达44.1(误差范围:21.0 - 63.0)千兆克的碳。这比目前的水平增加了15-16%，相当于目前四年的人为二氧化碳排放量。因此，如果不大力减少排放，这一战略的缓解潜力很低，所以应该保护森林碳汇，以抵消剩余的碳排放，而不是单一的补偿目前的排放水平。

据介绍，森林碳储存是防止全球变暖超过1.5°C的决策基石。然而，管理(例如，砍伐)对森林碳预算的全球影响仍然很难被量化。

附：英文原文

Title: Releasing global forests from human management: How much more carbon could be stored

Author: Caspar T. J. Roebroek, Gregory Duveiller, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Edouard L. Davin, Alessandro Cescatti

Issue&Volume: 2023-05-19

Abstract: Carbon storage in forests is a cornerstone of policy-making to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C. However, the global impact of management (for example, harvesting) on the carbon budget of forests remains poorly quantified. We integrated global maps of forest biomass and management with machine learning to show that by removing human intervention, under current climatic conditions and carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration, existing global forests could increase their aboveground biomass by up to 44.1 (error range: 21.0 to 63.0) petagrams of carbon. This is an increase of 15 to 16% over current levels, equating to about 4 years of current anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Therefore, without strong reductions in emissions, this strategy holds low mitigation potential, and the forest sink should be preserved to offset residual carbon emissions rather than to compensate for present emissions levels.

DOI: add5878

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add5878