课题组通过综合堤顶、决口的沉积资料和文献资料，展示了长达1.2万年的黄河洪水事件记录。研究结果表明，黄河流域洪水事件在过去一千年比全新世中期几乎增加了一个数量级，其中81±6%可归因于人为干扰。研究结果不仅揭示了这条世界上含沙量最大的河流的洪水灾害的长期动态，而且还为其他地方在人为压力下对大河进行可持续管理的政策提供了参考。
据了解，气候变暖可能会加速全球水文循环，从而增加洪水灾害的风险。然而，人类通过对河流及其集水区的改造所产生的影响并没有很好地量化。
附：英文原文
Title: Human disturbances dominated the unprecedentedly high frequency of Yellow River flood over the last millennium
Author: Shi-Yong Yu, Wen-Jia Li, Liang Zhou, Xuefeng Yu, Qiang Zhang, Zhixiong Shen
Issue&Volume: 2023-02-22
Abstract: A warming climate may increase flood hazard through boosting the global hydrological cycle. However, human impact through modifications to the river and its catchment is not well quantified. Here, we show a 12,000-year-long record of Yellow River flood events by synthesizing sedimentary and documentary data of levee overtops and breaches. Our result reveals that flood events in the Yellow River basin became almost an order of magnitude more frequent during the last millennium than the middle Holocene and 81 ± 6% of the increased flood frequency can be ascribed to anthropogenic disturbances. Our findings not only shed light on the long-term dynamics of flood hazards in this world’s most sediment-laden river but also inform policy of sustainable management of large rivers under anthropogenic stress elsewhere.
DOI: adf8576
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adf8576