美国伍兹霍尔海洋研究所
该课题组人员研究了末次冰期冰盛期(LGM;约2万年）在低纬度地区，该理论是最适用的。该课题组人员发现冰盛期和未来气候的古温度指标、理论和气候模式模型之间有显著的一致性。古气候资料为陆地扩大提供了至关重要的新支持，将未来低纬度、低海拔TA的范围精确到1.37（+0.27，-0.23）(95%置信区间)，即陆地变暖比海洋变暖约40%。观测到的数据模式理论的一致性有助于协调冰盛期海洋和陆地古温标，对平衡气候敏感性有影响。
据了解，在最近的气候观测中，陆地相对海洋变暖的陆地扩大(TA)是明显的。陆地扩大是海陆耦合水汽和热量的结果，因此对于预测未来变暖和水资源可用性很重要。然而，陆地扩大的理论基础从未在较短的仪器周期之外得到验证，陆地扩大的空间格局和振幅仍然不确定。
附：英文原文
Title: Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change
Author: Alan M. Seltzer, Pierre-Henri Blard, Steven C. Sherwood, Masa Kageyama
Issue&Volume: 2023-02-08
Abstract: Terrestrial amplification (TA) of land warming relative to oceans is apparent in recent climatic observations. TA results from land-sea coupling of moisture and heat and is therefore important for predicting future warming and water availability. However, the theoretical basis for TA has never been tested outside the short instrumental period, and the spatial pattern and amplitude of TA remain uncertain. Here, we investigate TA during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 thousand years) in the low latitudes, where the theory is most applicable. We find remarkable consistency between paleotemperature proxies, theory, and climate model simulations of both LGM and future climates. Paleoclimate data thus provide crucial new support for TA, refining the range of future low-latitude, low-elevation TA to 1.37+0.27-0.23(95% confidence interval), i.e., land warming ~40% more than oceans. The observed data model theory agreement helps reconcile LGM marine and terrestrial paleotemperature proxies, with implications for equilibrium climate sensitivity.
DOI: adf8119
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adf8119