德国波茨坦气候影响研究所、德国柏林大学的 Bi Stephen L团队的研究认为，煤炭联盟推动巴黎结盟的势头必须对抗搭便车的部门。这一研究成果于2023年2月6日发表在国际顶尖学术期刊《自然—气候变化》上。

该课题组研究人员引入动态政策评估(DPE)，这是一种基于证据的方法，用于模拟真实世界的政策制定。考虑到能源经济发展和政策采纳之间建立的经验关系，该研究团队通过多阶段反馈循环和概率联盟加入模型，将国家政治决策内化为综合评估模型REMIND。动态政策评估发现，在当前的政策背景下，全球超越煤炭能源联盟的参与度可能为5%，并与直觉相反，预测联盟内部的泄漏风险可能严重损害特定行业的需求方行动。动态政策评估进一步使政策能够内在地相互作用，超越煤炭能源联盟对COVID-19恢复投资的路径依赖证明了这一点。

据介绍，到本世纪中叶全球逐步淘汰煤炭被认为是《巴黎协定》的关键，该协定旨在将全球变暖限制为高于工业化前水平的2°C。自从第23次联合国气候变化框架公约（COP23）会议上成立“超越煤炭能源联盟”(PPCA)以来，加速煤炭淘汰的政治野心已成为COP26会议的首要任务。然而，减排研究缺乏工具来评估这种自下而上的势头是否能够向《巴黎协定》路线自我传播。

附：英文原文

Title: Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum

Author: Bi, Stephen L., Bauer, Nico, Jewell, Jessica

Issue&Volume: 2023-02-06

Abstract: The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA’s path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01570-8