瑞士联邦森林、雪和景观研究所Treydte, Kerstin小组揭示了当前人类引起横跨欧洲的大气干燥是过去400年来前所未有的。该研究于2023年12月27日发表于《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
研究人员将工业化前夏季蒸汽压亏变率的区域性独特重建（来自欧洲最大的树木年轮纤维素氧同位素网络的），与包括和不包括人类作用力的观测记录和地球系统模型相结合。研究证明，近几十年来，在不同的欧洲目标区域，大气干燥程度的加剧，在工业革命前的背景下是前所未有的，并且其归因于人类影响的可能性超过98%。
这一趋势在西欧和中欧、阿尔卑斯山和比利牛斯山脉地区最为明显，而在芬诺斯坎迪亚南部则最小。鉴于近年来的极端干旱和复合事件，大气干燥程度的进一步增加了植被的风险，特别是在欧洲温带低地的人口稠密地区。
据了解，蒸汽压差反映了大气能够容纳和实际容纳的水分之间的差异，这是一个从根本上影响蒸散、生态系统功能和植被碳吸收的因素。尽管它对于预测未来对自然生态系统和人类社会(如作物产量、野火和健康)的影响至关重要，但人们对其在自然与人类影响气候下的空间变异性和长期趋势却知之甚少。
附：英文原文
Title: Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years
Author: Treydte, Kerstin, Liu, Laibao, Padrn, Ryan S., Martnez-Sancho, Elisabet, Babst, Flurin, Frank, David C., Gessler, Arthur, Kahmen, Ansgar, Poulter, Benjamin, Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stegehuis, Annemiek I., Wilson, Rob, Andreu-Hayles, Laia, Bale, Roderick, Bednarz, Zdzislaw, Boettger, Tatjana, Berninger, Frank, Bntgen, Ulf, Daux, Valerie, Dorado-Lin, Isabel, Esper, Jan, Friedrich, Michael, Gagen, Mary, Grabner, Michael, Grudd, Hkan, Gunnarsson, Bjrn E., Gutirrez, Emilia, Hafner, Polona, Haupt, Marika, Hilasvuori, Emmi, Heinrich, Ingo, Helle, Gerhard, Jalkanen, Risto, Jungner, Hgne, Kalela-Brundin, Maarit, Kessler, Andreas, Kirchhefer, Andreas, Klesse, Stephan, Krapiec, Marek, Levani, Tom, Leuenberger, Markus, Linderholm, Hans W., McCarroll, Danny, Masson-Delmotte, Valrie, Pawelczyk, Slawomira, Pazdur, Anna, Planells, Octavi, Pukiene, Rutile, Rinne-Garmston, Katja T., Robertson, Iain, Saracino, Antonio, Saurer, Matthias, Schleser, Gerhard H., Seftigen, Kristina, Siegwolf, Rolf T. W., Sonninen, Eloni, Stievenard, Michel, Szychowska-Krapiec, Elzbieta, Szymaszek, Malgorzata, Todaro, Luigi, Waterhouse, John S., Weigl-Kuska, Martin, Weigt, Rosemarie B., Wimmer, Rupert, Woodley, Ewan J., Vitas, Adomas, Young, Giles, Loader, Neil J.
Issue&Volume: 2023-12-27
Abstract: The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe’s largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01335-8