近日，美国斯坦福大学Bendavid, Eran等研究了2002年至2019年受热带气旋影响的全球人口概况。2023年12月20日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这项成果。

研究人员将空间分辨的年度人口估计值与热带气旋风场估计值相结合，构建了2002-2019年间，受热带气旋影响人口的全球概况。研究发现，每年约有5.6亿人受到影响，在研究期间，受影响的人数在所有气旋强度中都有所增加。与本世纪初相比，近年来受影响人群的年龄分布已从儿童(5岁以下)转向老年人(60岁以上)。

在同一个国家内，遭受热带气旋影响的人口比未遭受热带气旋影响的人口在社会经济上更加贫困，这种关系在遭受更高强度风暴影响的人群中更为明显。通过描述受影响人群的模式和脆弱性，研究结果可以帮助制定缓解战略并评估热带气旋的全球负担和未来风险。

据介绍，热带气旋对生计和人口健康具有深远的影响，这种影响往往在事件发生后持续数年。描述人口和社会经济状况以及暴露人群的脆弱性对于评估与未来热带气旋事件相关的健康和其他风险至关重要。已有的研究对热带气旋风险的估计往往是区域性的，而不是全球性的，并且没有考虑人口脆弱性。

附：英文原文

Title: Global population profile of tropical cyclone exposure from 2002 to 2019

Author: Jing, Renzhi, Heft-Neal, Sam, Chavas, Daniel R., Griswold, Max, Wang, Zetianyu, Clark-Ginsberg, Aaron, Guha-Sapir, Debarati, Bendavid, Eran, Wagner, Zachary

Issue&Volume: 2023-12-20

Abstract: Tropical cyclones have far-reaching impacts on livelihoods and population health that often persist years after the event . Characterizing the demographic and socioeconomic profile and the vulnerabilities of exposed populations is essential to assess health and other risks associated with future tropical cyclone events . Estimates of exposure to tropical cyclones are often regional rather than global  and do not consider population vulnerabilities . Here, we combine spatially resolved annual demographic estimates with tropical cyclone wind fields estimates to construct a global profile of the populations exposed to tropical cyclones between 2002 and 2019. We find that approximately 560 million people are exposed yearly and that the number of people exposed has increased across all cyclone intensities over the study period. The age distribution of those exposed has shifted away from children (under-5) and towards older people (over-60) in recent years compared to the early 2000s. Populations exposed to tropical cyclones are more socioeconomically deprived than those unexposed within the same country, and this relationship is more pronounced for people exposed to higher-intensity storms. By characterizing the patterns and vulnerabilities of exposed populations, our results can help identify mitigation strategies and assess the global burden and future risks of tropical cyclones.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06963-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06963-z