奥地利维也纳技术大学 Bertola, Miriam 的研究团队近日取得一项新成果。他们认为通过对水文相似流域的观测可以预测欧洲的特大洪水。相关论文发表在2023年11月6日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
研究团队分析了来自欧洲各地 8,000 多个测量站的河流流量观测数据，并表明最近的特大洪水，可以从欧洲其他地方、以前观测到的数据中预测出来。几乎所有观测到的特大洪水(95.5%)都落在根据大陆上其他类似地方以前洪水情况所估计的包络值之内，这意味着在大陆范围内，局部意外事件的发生并不稀奇。
研究结果强调，这一方法也适用于更早的事件，特大洪水相对于其空间可变性，在时间上没有太大变化。这项研究的基本概念是，洪水生成过程中相似的流域会产生类似的异常值。因此，跨越国界，向非洲大陆其他地方学习，以避免意外和拯救生命是至关重要的。
据悉，远超过以往观测记录规模的特大洪水的来临，经常使居民和专家们应对不及，造成极其严重的破坏和生命损失。基于地方和区域信息的现有方法很少跨国界，由于关于特大洪水的数据较少，且因极端洪水的生成过程不同于较小的、更频繁观测到的事件，人们不能很好地预测这些洪水。
附：英文原文
Title: Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments
Author: Bertola, Miriam, Blschl, Gnter, Bohac, Milon, Borga, Marco, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B., Claps, Pierluigi, Dallan, Eleonora, Danilovich, Irina, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Ledvinka, Ondrej, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Montanari, Alberto, Ovcharuk, Valeriya, Viglione, Alberto, Volpi, Elena, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe Tito, Bonacci, Ognjen, anjevac, Ivan, Csik, Andras, Frolova, Natalia, Gnandt, Boglarka, Gribovszki, Zoltan, Gl, Ali, Gnther, Knut, Guse, Bjrn, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kohnov, Silvia, Komma, Jrgen, Kriauciuniene, Jurate, Kronvang, Brian, Lawrence, Deborah, Ldtke, Stefan, Mediero, Luis, Merz, Bruno, Molnar, Peter, Murphy, Conor, Oskoru, Dijana, Osuch, Marzena, Parajka, Juraj, Pfister, Laurent, Radevski, Ivan, Sauquet, Eric, Schrter, Kai, raj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Turner, Stephen, Valent, Peter, Veijalainen, Noora, Ward, Philip J., Willems, Patrick, Zivkovic, Nenad
Issue&Volume: 2023-11-06
Abstract: Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives. European river discharge observations suggest that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar extremes, enabling better predictability of megafloods using a continental scale perspective.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01300-5