中国气象科学研究院陈阳、葛全胜等人
为了对 2020 年中国发生的创纪录的空间复合洪涝热事件进行归因，研究人员根据天气预报模型设计模拟实验，量化基于分量的归因变化，并与历史流量模拟进行类比，进行了故事线归因分析。
研究结果量化了在大尺度环流的情况下，迄今为止，人为影响使 2020 年 6-7 月，长江中下游地区的极端梅雨降雨量增加了约 6.5 %，并使华南地区同期出现的季节性极端高温升温约 1 °C。研究结果预测，到本世纪末，复合事件将进一步加剧，与 2020 年相比，适度排放将使中国南方的降雨总量增加约 14 %，季节温度升温约 2.1 °C。
据介绍，复合事件的属性为具有不相称影响的新现灾害的准备工作提供了信息。然而，由于在已有的归因框架中没有很好地解决极端情况和不确定动态变化之间的时空相互作用，这项任务仍然具有挑战性。
附：英文原文
Title: Storyline attribution of human influence on a record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event
Author: Jun Wang, Yang Chen, Simon F. B. Tett, Dáithí Stone, Ji Nie, Jinming Feng, Zhongwei Yan, Panmao Zhai, Quansheng Ge
Issue&Volume: 2023-12-01
Abstract: Attribution of compound events informs preparedness for emerging hazards with disproportionate impacts. However, the task remains challenging because space-time interactions among extremes and uncertain dynamic changes are not satisfactorily addressed in the well-established attribution framework. For attributing the 2020 record-breaking spatially compounding flood-heat event in China, we conduct a storyline attribution analysis by designing simulation experiments via a weather forecast model, quantifying component-based attributable changes, and comparing with historical flow analogs. We quantify that given the large-scale circulation, anthropogenic influence to date has exacerbated the extreme Mei-yu rainfall in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during June–July 2020 by ~6.5% and warmed the co-occurring seasonal extreme heat in South China by ~1°C. Our projections show a further intensification of the compound event by the end of this century, with moderate emissions making the rainfall totals ~14% larger and the season ~2.1°C warmer in South China than the 2020 status.
DOI: adi2714
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi2714