气候变化是近来南极冰体变化的关键驱动力，这一观点由澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚大学 King, Matt A. 的研究组经过不懈努力研究而提出。相关论文发表在2023年11月13日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

研究人员表明，2002-2021年间，基于卫星对冰体质量变化的重力估计，可以在很大程度上通过与南方环形模式和滞后 ENSO 的简单线性关系来解释。多元线性回归揭示了南方环形模式和/或 ENSO 的累积效应，解释了大部分从整个冰盖到单个排水盆地的年代际变化。2002-2021年间，很大一部分的整个冰盖冰体的净变化，可归因于正南方环形模式的持续作用力。经研究了解，这一时期南方环形模式变化的驱动因素(在多年代际时间尺度上主要是人为的)，因此，将冰盖变化部分归因于人类活动可能是一条途径。

据研究人员介绍的多个数据集显示，近几十年来，南极冰盖的质量一直在下降，并引起海平面的上升。冰体的短期变化部分主要与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）现象有关。包括对地面冰盖及其周围的冰架，但与南方环形模式(该地区的主要气候模式)的关系尚不完全清楚。

附：英文原文

Title: Climate variability a key driver of recent Antarctic ice-mass change

Author: King, Matt A., Lyu, Kewei, Zhang, Xuebin

Issue&Volume: 2023-11-13

Abstract: Multiple datasets show the Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost mass over recent decades and therefore contributed to sea-level rise. Short-term variability in ice mass has been associated partly with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), for both the grounded ice sheet and its bounding ice shelves, but a connection with the Southern Annular Mode—the dominant climate mode in the region—is not fully clear. Here we show that satellite-based gravimetric estimates of ice-mass variability between 2002 and 2021 can be largely explained by a simple linear relation with both the Southern Annular Mode and lagged ENSO. Multiple linear regression reveals that the cumulative effects of the Southern Annular Mode and/or ENSO explain much of the decadal variability from the whole ice sheet down to individual drainage basins. A substantial portion of the net change in ice mass across the whole ice sheet between 2002 and 2021 can be attributed to a persistent forcing from a positive Southern Annular Mode. Understanding the drivers of variability in the Southern Annular Mode over this period, which are largely anthropogenic over multidecadal timescales, may be a pathway to partially attributing ice-sheet change to human activity.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01317-w

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01317-w