了解当代和未来极端波浪事件的不确定性，以进行大范围影响和适应规划，这一成果由美国中佛罗里达大学
研究人员在全球范围内量化了当代极端波动估计的不确定性，这些不确定性是通过观测支持的广泛主题的全球波动再分析/后预测的集合来实现的。研究组发现，在邻近海岸线的区域，50年回归期波高(H50s)的当代不确定性(平均)约2.5 m，主要受大气强迫力驱动。
此外，课题组表明，当代50年回归其波高估计值的不确定性主导了全球约80%海洋和海岸线上50年回归期波高在21世纪的变化预测。当转化为大规模沿海风险分析时，这些不确定性与风暴潮和预计海平面上升的不确定性相当。因此，当代极端波浪事件的不确定性需要与预测相结合，以充分评估潜在的影响。
据了解，了解极端风浪事件的不确定性对于近海/沿海风险和适应评估至关重要。尽管如此，当代极端波浪事件的不确定性尚未得到评估，预测仍然有限。
附：英文原文
Title: Understanding uncertainties in contemporary and future extreme wave events for broad-scale impact and adaptation planning
Author: Joao Morim, Thomas Wahl, Sean Vitousek, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Ian Young, Mark Hemer
Issue&Volume: 2023-01-11
Abstract: Understanding uncertainties in extreme wind-wave events is essential for offshore/coastal risk and adaptation estimates. Despite this, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events have not been assessed, and projections are still limited. Here, we quantify, at global scale, the uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave estimates across an ensemble of widely used global wave reanalyses/hindcasts supported by observations. We find that contemporary uncertainties in 50-year return period wave heights (H50s) reach (on average) ~2.5 m in regions adjacent to coastlines and are primarily driven by atmospheric forcing. Furthermore, we show that uncertainties in contemporary H50s estimates dominate projected 21st-century changes in H50s across ~80% of global ocean and coastlines. When translated into broad-scale coastal risk analysis, these uncertainties are comparable to those from storm surges and projected sea level rise. Thus, uncertainties in contemporary extreme wave events need to be combined with those of projections to fully assess potential impacts.
DOI: ade3170
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ade3170