荷兰莱顿大学医学中心Kim Luijken团队研究了病因学研究中探索性分析和可信度评估的考虑因素。这一研究成果于2022年5月3日发表在《英国医学杂志》上。

为了给报告和解释提供考虑因素，以提高病原学研究中探索性分析的可信度评估，研究组进行了一项文献回顾和探索性研究原则概述。

该研究侧重于一种特定类型的因果研究，即调查一种或多种风险因素对特定健康结局或疾病因果影响的病因学研究。该小型综述包括在2021年第一期的四种流行病学期刊上发表的病因学研究文章：即《美国流行病学杂志》（American Journal of Epidemiology）、《流行病学杂志》（Epidemiology）、《欧洲流行病学杂志》（European Journal of Epidemiology）、《国际流行病学杂志》（International Journal of epidemiology），特别侧重于疾病因果风险因素的观察性研究。主要结局为报告的暴露-结局关联数，按分析类型分组（主要、敏感性和附加）。

期刊文章报道了许多暴露-结果关联：其中主要分析有平均33个（范围1-120）暴露-结果关联，敏感性分析有30个（0-336），额外分析有163个（0-1467）。研究组讨论了评估探索性分析可信度的六个重要因素：研究问题、方案、统计标准、结果解释、报告完整性，以及探索性结果对未来因果研究的影响。

基于这一小型综述，病原学研究中的探索性分析并非总是正确报告。研究组提供了病因学研究中探索性分析报告的六个考虑因素，以激发对其首选处理和报告的讨论。研究人员应对探索性分析的结果负责，明确报告其探索性性质，并指定在未来研究中应调查哪些发现以及如何调查。

附：英文原文

Title: Exploratory analyses in aetiologic research and considerations for assessment of credibility: mini-review of literature

Author: Kim Luijken, Olaf M Dekkers, Frits R Rosendaal, Rolf H H Groenwold

Issue&Volume: 2022/05/03

Abstract:

Objective To provide considerations for reporting and interpretation that can improve assessment of the credibility of exploratory analyses in aetiologic research.

Design Mini-review of the literature and account of exploratory research principles.

Setting This study focuses on a particular type of causal research, namely aetiologic studies, which investigate the causal effect of one or multiple risk factors on a particular health outcome or disease. The mini review included aetiologic research articles published in four epidemiology journals in the first issue of 2021: American Journal of Epidemiology, Epidemiology, European Journal of Epidemiology, and International Journal of Epidemiology, specifically focusing on observational studies of causal risk factors of diseases.

Main outcome measures Number of exposure-outcome associations reported, grouped by type of analysis (main, sensitivity, and additional).

Results The journal articles reported many exposure-outcome associations: a mean number of 33 (range 1-120) exposure-outcome associations for the primary analysis, 30 (0-336) for sensitivity analyses, and 163 (0-1467) for additional analyses. Six considerations were discussed that are important in assessing the credibility of exploratory analyses: research problem, protocol, statistical criteria, interpretation of findings, completeness of reporting, and effect of exploratory findings on future causal research.

Conclusions Based on this mini-review, exploratory analyses in aetiologic research were not always reported properly. Six considerations for reporting of exploratory analyses in aetiologic research were provided to stimulate a discussion about their preferred handling and reporting. Researchers should take responsibility for the results of exploratory analyses by clearly reporting their exploratory nature and specifying which findings should be investigated in future research and how.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-070113

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2021-070113