美国蒙大拿州立大学Raina K. Plowright团队发现蝙蝠生态学的快速变化所驱动的病原体溢出。这一研究成果于2022年11月16日在线发表在国际学术期刊《自然》上。

研究人员展示了25年来在澳大利亚亚热带地区关于土地利用变化、蝙蝠行为和亨德拉病毒从蝙蝠向马匹溢出的数据。这些数据表明，蝙蝠正在通过持续采用以前对营养压力的短暂反应的行为来应对环境变化。现在，土地使用变化和气候之间的相互作用导致了蝙蝠在农业地区的持续居住，在那里，周期性的食物短缺推动了集群的溢出。残存森林中的树木冬季开花的脉冲似乎可以防止溢出。研究人员根据这些现象建立了综合的贝叶斯网络模型，准确地预测了25年中每一年的外溢群的存在与否。

这项长期研究确定了栖息地丧失、气候和溢出风险增加之间的机制联系。它为研究蝙蝠病毒溢出的原因和制定预防大流行病的生态对策提供了一个框架。

据了解，近几十年来，源自蝙蝠的病原体已成为一个日益严重的公共卫生问题。一个主要的挑战是如何确定这些病原体是如何溢出到人类群体中，从而产生大流行的威胁。许多相关的研究将溢出与土地使用或其他人为压力因素的变化联系起来，尽管观察到的相关机制还没有被确定。一个限制是缺乏关于多种溢出物的空间和时间上的明确数据，以及关于溢出物、水库宿主生态和行为以及病毒动态之间的联系。

附：英文原文

Title: Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology

Author: Eby, Peggy, Peel, Alison J., Hoegh, Andrew, Madden, Wyatt, Giles, John R., Hudson, Peter J., Plowright, Raina K.

Issue&Volume: 2022-11-16

Abstract: During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat1. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified4. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behavior, and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behavior, and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviors that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections among habitat loss, climate, and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05506-2

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05506-2