论文标题：Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa

期刊：Nature Communications

作者：David W. Redding, Peter M. Atkinson, Andrew A. Cunningham, Gianni Lo Iacono, Lina M. Moses,James L. N. Wood,Kate E. Jones

发表时间：2019/10/15

数字识别码： 10.1038/s41467-019-12499-6

微信链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/EcWPztXT0Bp3jWCPExvPtA

根据《自然-通讯》本周发表的一项模型研究Impacts of environmental and socio-economic factors on emergence and epidemic potential of Ebola in Africa，埃博拉疫情爆发预计将在一系列潜在的全球变化情景下加剧。

图1： 环境机制模型（EMM）埃博拉病毒模拟示意图 图源：Redding 等

人畜共患病是一种先出现在动物身上再传播给人类的疾病，这种疾病会受到各种因素的影响，包括保虫宿主动物的分布和健康、人类与这些宿主动物的接触率以及疾病干预策略。

英国伦敦大学学院的David Redding、Kate Jones和同事创建了一个埃博拉病毒病（EVD）溢出的多元数学模型，并纳入了所有这些因素。模型能准确预测之前爆发过疫情的非洲地区。作者因而能预测出将来有爆发风险的地区，以及在气候、人口增长、医疗实践变化情景下的爆发可能性。

作者发现，在所有气候变暖的情景下，可能会爆发埃博拉病毒病的地区都将会增加，尤其是非洲中西部此前没有出现过疫情的地区。在气候持续变暖和社会经济发展放缓的情景下，溢出事件导致的爆发可能性会增加1.6倍。

此前的埃博拉病毒病爆发概率模型都忽略了保虫宿主生态学和气候变暖的潜在效应。作者最后表示，基于最新模型的研究结果或指明了应进行疾病监测的重点地区，以防将来的疫情爆发。

摘要：Recent outbreaks of animal-borne emerging infectious diseases have likely been precipitated by a complex interplay of changing ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors. Here, we develop modelling methods that capture elements of each of these factors, to predict the risk of Ebola virus disease (EVD) across time and space. Our modelling results match previously-observed outbreak patterns with high accuracy, and suggest further outbreaks could occur across most of West and Central Africa. Trends in the underlying drivers of EVD risk suggest a 1.75 to 3.2-fold increase in the endemic rate of animal-human viral spill-overs in Africa by 2070, given current modes of healthcare intervention. Future global change scenarios with higher human population growth and lower rates of socio-economic development yield a fourfold higher likelihood of epidemics occurring as a result of spill-over events. Our modelling framework can be used to target interventions designed to reduce epidemic risk for many zoonotic diseases.

（来源：科学网）