北京气象局Shili Yang及其团队成员使用RICE模型，以量化区域气候损害程度及其对未来排放路径的影响。相关论文发表在2024年3月6日出版的《大气科学进展》杂志上。

研究人员表示，中国和非洲可能遭受温度变化和海平面上升造成的最严重的综合损失，其次是印度、其他亚洲发展中国家（OthAsia）和其他高收入国（OHI)家。预计到2195年，中国和非洲的综合损失将分别占国内生产总值（GDP）的15.5%和12.5%，从2005年到2195年，相应的累计损失分别为124.0万亿和87.3万亿美元（USD）。而美国（US）、欧亚大陆和俄罗斯的综合损失较小，预计到2195年将低于GDP的4.9%，累计损失分别为36.0万亿、4.2万亿和3.3万亿美元。

此外，非洲、欧盟(EU)和其他高收入国家(OHI)等沿海地区，因海平面上升和温度变化也造成了类似的损失。但在中国，海平面上升造成的损失预计将超过温度变化造成的损失。研究表明，损伤模块的开/关会影响区域和全球的排放轨迹。到2195年，所有损伤模块离线(Dam-off)、只有海平面损伤模块在线(Dam-SLR)和只有温度损伤模块在线(Dam-T)的实验中，全球排放量分别比所有损伤模块在线(Dam-on)高3.8%、2.5%和1.3%。

据研究人员介绍，本研究使用区域气候与经济一体化(RICE)模型，量化了温度和海平面变化造成的区域损失，以及启用和禁用气候影响模块对未来排放途径的影响。结果突出了基于经济发展和地理位置的不同导致的不同损失。

附：英文原文

Title: Regional climate damage quantifications and its impacts on future emission paths using the RICE model

Author: Shili Yang, Wenjie Dong, JieMing Chou, Yong Zhang, Weixing Zhao

Issue&Volume: 2024-03-06

Abstract: This study quantified the regional losses resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy (RICE) model, as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways. Results highlight varied losses based on economic development and location. Specifically, China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive losses caused by temperature change and sea level rise, followed by India, other developing Asian countries (OthAsia), and other high-income countries (OHI). The comprehensive losses for China and Africa are projected to be 15.5% and 12.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2195, with the corresponding cumulative losses of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars (USD) from 2005 to 2195, respectively. While the comprehensive losses in the United States (US), Eurasia, and Russia are smaller and projected to lower than 4.9% of GDP in 2195, and the cumulative losses are 36.0 trillion, 4.2 trillion, and 3.3 trillion USD, respectively. Additionally, coastal regions like Africa, the European Union (EU), and other high-income countries (OHI) show comparable losses for sea level rise and temperature change. But in China, sea level induced losses are projected to exceed those from temperature changes. Moreover, the study indicates the damage module on/off affects the regional and global emission trajectories. By 2195, the global emissions under experiment with all the damage module offline (Dam-off), only sea level damage module online (Dam-SLR) and only temperature damage module online (Dam-T) were 3.8%, 2.5%, and 1.3% higher than that with all the damage module inline (Dam-on), respectively.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3193-z

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-3193-zviewType=HTML