基于耦合模型对比项目6的独龙江—伊洛瓦底江流域对未来气候变化的水文响应，这一成果由云南大学何大明等经过不懈努力而取得。2024年3月1日出版的《中国地理科学》杂志发表了这一最新研究成果。

本研究通过建立一个基于物理的水文模型，评估了气候对独龙江—伊洛瓦底江流域水文的影响。研究在两条共享的社会经济路径(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5)下，以耦合模式比对项目6 (CMIP6)的三个最新全球气候模型(GCMs)为近期(2025-2049)、中期(2050-2074)和远期(2075-2099)制定了未来气候情景。开发了基于历史水文过程的MIKE SHE区域模型，以进一步预测未来的河流流量，该模型在河流模拟中表现出可靠的性能，验证Nash-Sutcliffe效率(NSE)为0.72。结果表明，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5气候变化预估中，到本世纪末，年降水量和潜在蒸散量(PET)增加，其中降水量增加11.3%和26.1%，潜在蒸散量增加3.2%和4.9%。

与基线期相比，这些变化预计将导致所有站点的年流量增加，特别是在流域出水口(Pyay站，在21世纪末分别在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5下增加16.1%和37.0%)。对Pyay站的季节分析预测显示，在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5条件下，旱季流量分别增加31.3%-48.9%和22.5%-76.3%，雨季流量分别增加5.8%- 12.6%和2.8%-33.3%。此外，洪水事件的规模和频率将不断升级，可能会严重影响水电生产和粮食安全。本研究概述了21世纪水文对未来气候变化的响应，并为决策者制定水资源管理策略提供了科学依据。

附：英文原文

Title: Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Author: Xu, Ziyue, Ma, Kai, Yuan, Xu, He, Daming

Issue&Volume: 2024-03-01

Abstract: Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), the Dulong-Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) River, an international river among China, India and Myanmar, plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway. However, the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerability to climate change impacts. This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin (DIRB) by using a physical-based hydrologic model. We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the near (2025–2049), mid (2050–2074), and far future (2075–2099). The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow, demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a validation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.72. Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with precipitation increasing by 11.3% and 26.1%, and PET increasing by 3.2% and 4.9%, respectively, by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations, notably at the basin’s outlet (Pyay station) compared to the baseline period (with an increase of 16.1% and 37.0% at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an increase in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%–48.9% and 22.5%–76.3% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%–12.6% and 2.8%–33.3%, respectively. Moreover, the magnitude and frequency of flood events are predicted to escalate, potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly. This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

DOI: 10.1007/s11769-024-1420-2

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11769-024-1420-2