近日，气象灾害教育部重点实验室张文君及其团队的研究表明，不同ENSO对中国东部初冬和冬末的降水模式与季节变化的黑潮反气旋异常相关。相关论文于2024年1月5日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《大气科学进展》杂志上。

研究发现，ENSO对中国东部降水模式的影响在初冬(11-12月)和冬末(1-2月)表现出明显的差异。初冬，中国东部与ENSO相关的降水异常呈现单极空间分布特征。相反，冬末降水异常型变化显著，表现为偶极空间分布。从初冬到冬末降水响应的显著变化在很大程度上归因于季节性变化的黑潮反气旋异常。在厄尔尼诺的初冬，菲律宾海和黑潮地区均出现反气旋环流异常，增强了整个中国东部的水汽输送，导致该地区降水增多。

在厄尔尼诺的冬末，菲律宾海上空的反气旋进一步增强，黑潮上空的反气旋减弱，这可能导致中国东部南北地区水汽输送不同，从而形成偶极降水分布。在拉尼娜冬季期间显示出大致相反的环流和降水异常。进一步的分析表明，黑潮反气旋异常的季节变化可能与ENSO相关的热带中东部太平洋对流在初冬至冬末的增强有关。这些结果对中国东部冬季降水的季节-年际可预测性具有重要意义。

据悉，中国东部冬季降水表现出显著的年际变化，这与厄尔尼诺—南方涛动（ENSO）现象密切相关。

附：英文原文

Title: Different ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation pattern in early and late winter associated with seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies

Author: Jingrui YAN, Wenjun Zhang, Suqiong HU, Feng JIANG

Issue&Volume: 2024-01-05

Abstract: Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability, which has been suggested to be closely related to El Nio–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation pattern exhibit obvious differences in early (November–December) and late (January–February) winter. In early winter, precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern China. In contrast, the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter changes remarkably, manifesting as a dipole spatial distribution. The noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies. In early winter of El Nio years, anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region, enhancing water vapor transport to the entire eastern China, and contributing to more precipitation there. In late winter of El Nio years, the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened, while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates, which could result in different water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation distribution. Roughly opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Nia winters. Further analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central–eastern Pacific convection from early to late winter. These results have important implications for the seasonal-to-interannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3196-1

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-023-3196-1viewType=HTML