美国国际农业大学Michael Brody的课题组分析了中亚全球能源和水交换项目，对区域水文气候项目案例提出了新观点。这一成果于2024年1月3日发表在国际顶尖学术期刊《大气科学进展》上。

通过分析，研究人员表明，夏天的气温已经非常高了，且中亚一直在变暖，降水可能在增加。预计变暖会加剧，但其时空分布取决于特定的全球情景。对未来降水的预测显示，降水的类型、数量和分布上都存在显著的不确定性。区域水文气候项目(RHP)是研究这些问题的一个途径。制定RHP的初步步骤始于2021年，人们当时对这些气候问题进行了广泛的在线调查。随后举办了在线研讨会，于2023年在乌兹别克斯坦塔什干举行了一次现场研讨会。GEWEX在该地区的优先事项包括观测和建模，发展更好和更多的降水观测，这些都是下一个研讨会的主题。一个设计良好的RHP应能减少政策相关时间框架内的关键气候不确定性，这些不确定性可能影响对气候适应的必要投资的决策。

据悉，中亚由哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯共和国、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦组成。该地区属于大陆性气候，主要是半干旱到干旱。农业是该地区经济的重要组成部分，由于需要大量用水这一特点，其农业极易受到气候变化的影响。人口增长和灌溉发展大大增加了该地区对水的需求。主要的气候变化问题包括作为该地区水资源基础的冰川融化和积雪减少，以及降水制度的变化。大多数冰川位于吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦，这引起了跨界水资源问题。

附：英文原文

Title: The Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project in Central Asia; The Case for a Regional Hydroclimate Project

Author: Michael Brody, Maksim Kulikov, Sagynbek Orumbaev, Peter van Oevelen

Issue&Volume: 2024-01-03

Abstract: Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The region’s climate is continental, mostly semi-arid to arid. Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy. By its nature of intensive water use, agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region. Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and shrinking snowpack that are the foundation of the region’s water resources and a changing precipitation regime. Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, leading to transboundary water resource issues. Summer already has extremely high temperatures. Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing. The warming is expected to increase, but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios. Forecasts of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type, amount, and distribution. Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP) are an approach to studying these issues. Initial steps to develop a RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues. It was followed up with an online workshop and then in 2023, an in-person workshop, held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. Priorities for GEWEX for the region include both observations and modeling, development of better and additional precipitation observations, all topics of the next workshop. A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy relevant time frames that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3384-z

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-023-3384-zviewType=HTML