该团队研究了1950年至2021年北大西洋大气环流模式出现频率的趋势。大约7%的大气环流模式显示出显著的发生趋势，它们对地表气候有重大影响。越来越频繁的模式驱动着整个欧洲的热浪，并增强了欧洲大陆北部冬季的暴风雨。在欧洲，近期超过91%与热浪有关的死亡和33%的高冲击力风暴与日益频繁的大气环流模式同时发生。虽然所确定的趋势具有统计意义，但它们并不一定是人为的。相反，越来越罕见的大气模式对应着北欧潮湿、凉爽的夏季条件和欧洲大陆潮湿的冬季条件。
这些环流变化的综合效应是，在大陆大部分地区，强烈、动态驱动的全年变暖，以及降水和地面风的大规模区域性和季节性变化。
据了解，诊断气候系统的动态变化，例如大气环流模式的变化，仍然具有挑战性。
附：英文原文
Title: Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe
Author: Faranda, Davide, Messori, Gabriele, Jezequel, Aglae, Vrac, Mathieu, Yiou, Pascal
Issue&Volume: 2023-3-21
Abstract: Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2214525120