近日，中国科学院大气物理研究所彭静及其团队成员研究发现，CO₂的浓度空间变化可以有效改善北半球模拟时的地面升温。该研究于2023年12月21日发表于国际一流学术期刊《大气科学进展》杂志上。

研究将卫星获得的大气CO₂浓度的空间分布纳入北京师范大学地球系统模型，调查了自工业革命以来，1976-2005年北半球地表气温的历史变化。与使用的CO₂均匀分布模拟的温度上升相比，使用CO₂非均匀分布模拟的结果与北半球气候研究单位(CRU)，1901-1930年期间，相对于基线的历史条件下的数据吻合得更好。

在CO₂均匀分布的模拟中，半球JJA地表温度升高了1.28±0.29℃，在CO₂不均匀分布的模拟中升高了1.00±0.24℃，在CRU数据中升高了0.24℃。非均匀CO₂模拟中向下短波辐射的减少主要归因于欧亚大陆变暖的减少，以及叶面积指数和潜热通量增加所产生的反馈。与均匀CO₂模拟相比，这些影响在非均匀CO₂模拟中更为明显。结果表明，考虑CO₂浓度的空间分布可以降低地球系统模式模拟的地表气温升高的过高估计值。

据悉，自工业革命以来，大气中CO₂浓度的增加已经影响了地表气温。然而，大气CO₂浓度对地表气温偏差的影响仍然非常不清楚。

附：英文原文

Title: Spatial variation in CO₂ concentration improves simulated surface air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere

Author: Jing Peng, Li Dan, xiba tang

Issue&Volume: 2023-12-21

Abstract: Increasing concentration of atmospheric CO₂ since the Industrial Revolution has affected surface air temperature. However, the impact of the spatial distribution of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on surface air temperature biases remains highly unclear. By incorporating the spatial distribution of satellite-derived atmospheric CO₂ concentration in the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model, this study investigated the increase in surface air temperature since the Industrial Revolution in the Northern Hemisphere under historical conditions from 1976–2005. In comparison with the increase in surface temperature simulated using a uniform distribution of CO₂, simulation with a nonuniform distribution of CO₂ produced better agreement with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data in the Northern Hemisphere under the historical condition relative to the baseline over the period 1901–1930. Hemispheric JJA surface air temperature increased by 1.28 ± 0.29 °C in simulations with a uniform distribution of CO₂, by 1.00 ± 0.24 °C in simulations with a non-uniform distribution of CO₂, and by 0.24 °C in the CRU data. The decrease in down shortwave radiation in the non-uniform CO₂ simulation was primarily attributable to reduced warming in Eurasia, combined with feedbacks resulting from increased leaf area index and latent heat fluxes. These effects were more pronounced in the non-uniform CO₂ simulation compared to the uniform CO₂ simulation. Results indicate that consideration of the spatial distribution of CO₂ concentration can reduce the overestimated increase in surface air temperature simulated by Earth system models.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3249-5

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-023-3249-5viewType=HTML