中国科学院大气物理研究所肖子牛和中国气象局丁一汇合作研究并取得一项新突破。他们提出使用 CMIP6 模型，来模拟冬季暖北极—冷欧亚模式及其关键区域。相关论文于2023年12月10日发表在《大气科学进展》杂志上。

研究评估了参与耦合模式比对项目(CMIP6)第 6 阶段， 39 个气候模式在模拟 1980-2014 年冬季 WACE 模型中的表现，并探讨了导致模式间模拟能力差异的关键因素。结果表明，多模式集成(MME)比大多数单一模式能更地能模拟 WACE 模型的空间分布。能或不能很好地模拟欧亚大陆冬季地面气温的气候学和标准偏差的模式，尤其是后者，在温度上能或不能很好地模拟 WACE 型。这主要是由于模式对巴伦支海—喀拉海(BKS)地区暖异常范围和强度的模拟能力不同所致。

进一步分析表明，这些模式在巴伦支海—喀拉海地区的良好表现与它们模拟乌拉尔阻塞(UB)的位置和持续时间的能力有关，乌拉尔阻塞可以向巴伦支海—喀拉海地区输送热量，引起北极变暖，并加强下游的西风槽，使欧亚大陆中部降温。因此，乌拉尔阻塞的模拟是关键，并显著影响模型模拟 WACE 的性能。

据悉，在北半球最近的冬季，一个增强的暖北极—冷欧亚(WACE)模式已经成为一个显著的特征。然而 WACE 的模型和观测研究之间的分歧结果仍然存在。

附：英文原文

Title: The Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern and Its Key Region in Winter in CMIP6 Model Simulations

Author: Liang ZHAO, Yunwen LIU, Yihui DING, Qingquan LI, Wei DONG, Xinyong SHEN, Wei CHENG, Haoxin YAO, Ziniu XIAO

Issue&Volume: 2023-12-10

Abstract: An enhanced Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern has been a notable feature in recent winters of the Northern Hemisphere. However, divergent results between model and observational studies of the WACE still remain. This study evaluates the performance of 39 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the WACE pattern in winter of 1980–2014 and explores the key factors causing the differences in the simulation capability among the models. The results show that the multimodel ensemble (MME) can better simulate the spatial distribution of the WACE pattern than most single models. Models that can/cannot simulate both the climatology and the standard deviation of the Eurasian winter surface air temperature well, especially the latter, usually can/cannot simulate the WACE pattern well. This mainly results from the different abilities of the models to simulate the range and intensity of the warm anomaly in the Barents Sea–Kara seas (BKS) region. Further analysis shows that a good performance of the models in the BKS area is usually related to their ability to simulate location and persistence of Ural blocking (UB), which can transport heat to the BKS region, causing the warm Arctic, and strengthen the westerly trough downstream, cooling central Eurasia. Therefore, simulation of UB is key and significantly affects the model’s performance in simulating the WACE.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-022-2201-4

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-022-2201-4viewType=HTML