中国大气科学与地球物理数值模拟国家重点实验室胡文婷团队，近日在研究华南等地区未来强降水和极端干旱变化对经济的影响中取得新进展。这一研究成果发表在2023年12月8日出版的国际学术期刊《大气科学进展》上。

基于耦合模型相互比较项目(CMIP6)第 6 期最新发布的数据，在共享社会经济路径(SSP5-8.5)化石燃料开发方式下，课题组人员对INCSC地区未来极端降水进行了预测并研究了其对国内生产总值的影响。结果表明，在全球变暖的背景下最大连续 5 天降水量在整个 INCSC 区域将会明显增强，最大连续干旱天数在大部分区域将会延长。

气候变化始终主导着对INCSC区域国内生产总值的影响，而不是国内生产总值的变化。如果只考虑气候变化对国内生产总值的影响，极端降水的变化对中国南方的湖南、江西、福建、广东和海南，以及印支地区马来半岛和柬埔寨南部的经济未来的影响更大。因此，这些区域迫切需要及时的区域适应战略。此外，从次区域平均值的角度来看，超过三分之二的 CMIP6 模式显示，维持较低的全球变暖水平将减少INCSC地区强降水对经济的影响。

据介绍，近几十年来，强降水和极端干旱给华南和INCSC地区造成了严重的经济损失。考虑到 INCSC 国内生产总值(GDP)较高的地区沿海岸线分布，且受全球变暖的影响较大，了解到最大连续 5 天降水量(RX5day)和最大连续干旱天数(CDD)的未来变化可能带来的经济影响对于该地区的适应规划至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Impacts of future changes in heavy precipitation and extreme drought on economy over South China and Indochina

Author: Bin Tang, Wenting Hu, anmin Duan, Yimin Liu, Wen Bao, Yue Xin, Xianyi Yang

Issue&Volume: 2023-12-08

Abstract: Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over the South China and Indochina (INCSC) in recent decades. Given the areas with large gross domestic product (GDP) in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming, understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day) and the maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) is critical for adaptation planning in this region. Based on latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under fossil-fueled development way of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) are investigated. Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region, while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming. The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region, rather than the change of GDP. If only consider the effect of climate change on GDP, the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan in South China, as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina. Thus, timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions. Moreover, from the sub-regional average viewpoint, over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the impacts on economy from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-023-3158-7viewType=HTML