北京师范大学樊京芳、Yang, Saini和Chen, Xiaosong的研究小组在研究中取得进展。他们提出了地球系统中易触发组分之间的遥联现象。相关论文于2023年1月5日发表在《自然—气候变化》杂志上。

研究组提出了一个气候网络方法来分析一个突出的易触发组分——亚马逊雨林地区(ARA)的全球影响。研究发现，亚马逊雨林地区显示出与青藏高原（TP）和南极西部冰盖等地区具有较强的相关性。模型显示，在气候变化的条件下，已确定的亚马逊雨林与青藏高原之间的遥相关传播路径是不稳定的。此外，课题组人员发现青藏高原积雪覆盖范围自2008年以来一直处于失稳状态。研究组进一步发现，气候变化下，亚马逊雨林和青藏高原之间的各种极端气候是同步的。他们的框架强调了易触发组分可以相互关联，以及级联倾翻动态的潜在可预测性。

据悉，易触发组分是地球系统的组成部分，可能在特定的阈值从一种状态突然不可逆地转变为另一种状态。尚不清楚一个系统的引发能对其他区域或临界要素产生多大程度的影响。

附：英文原文

Title: Teleconnections among tipping elements in the Earth system

Author: Liu, Teng, Chen, Dean, Yang, Lan, Meng, Jun, Wang, Zanchenling, Ludescher, Josef, Fan, Jingfang, Yang, Saini, Chen, Deliang, Kurths, Jrgen, Chen, Xiaosong, Havlin, Shlomo, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

Issue&Volume: 2023-01-05

Abstract: Tipping elements are components of the Earth system that may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at specific thresholds. It is not well understood to what degree tipping of one system can influence other regions or tipping elements. Here, we propose a climate network approach to analyse the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that the ARA exhibits strong correlations with regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet. Models show that the identified teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP is robust under climate change. In addition, we detect that TP snow cover extent has been losing stability since 2008. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are synchronized under climate change. Our framework highlights that tipping elements can be linked and also the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01558-4

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01558-4