美国华盛顿大学Curtis Deutsch、Justin L. Penn研究组提出要避免气候变暖导致的海洋大规模灭绝。该研究于2022年4月29日发表于国际一流学术期刊《科学》杂志上。

他们根据不同动物物种的生态生理限制和对化石记录的校准，量化了一系列未来气候海洋中的整体和局部灭绝风险。随着温室气体排放的加速，仅因变暖和氧气消耗而造成的物种损失就可以与一个世纪内对当前人类的直接影响相当，并最终导致与地球过去相当的大规模灭绝。

极地物种灭绝的风险最高，但热带地区的当地生物丰富度下降得更多。扭转温室气体排放趋势将使灭绝风险降低 70% 以上，从而保护在过去约 5000 万年的进化历史中积累的海洋生物多样性。

据悉，全球变暖威胁着海洋生物群，其严重程度未知。

附：英文原文

Title: Avoiding ocean mass extinction from climate warming

Author: Justin L. Penn, Curtis Deutsch

Issue&Volume: 2022-04-29

Abstract: Global warming threatens marine biota with losses of unknown severity. Here, we quantify global and local extinction risks in the ocean across a range of climate futures on the basis of the ecophysiological limits of diverse animal species and calibration against the fossil record. With accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, species losses from warming and oxygen depletion alone become comparable to current direct human impacts within a century and culminate in a mass extinction rivaling those in Earth’s past. Polar species are at highest risk of extinction, but local biological richness declines more in the tropics. Reversing greenhouse gas emissions trends would diminish extinction risks by more than 70%, preserving marine biodiversity accumulated over the past ~50 million years of evolutionary history.

DOI: abe9039

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abe9039