英国帝国理工学院Thomas S. Churcher研究团队揭示了COVID-19对非洲抗疟计划的潜在影响。该研究于2020年8月7日在线发表于《自然—医学》。
Title: The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa
Author: Ellie Sherrard-Smith, Alexandra B. Hogan, Arran Hamlet, Oliver J. Watson, Charlie Whittaker, Peter Winskill, Fatima Ali, Audu B. Mohammad, Perpetua Uhomoibhi, Ibrahim Maikore, Nnenna Ogbulafor, Jamilu Nikau, Mara D. Kont, Joseph D. Challenger, Robert Verity, Ben Lambert, Matthew Cairns, Bhargavi Rao, Marc Baguelin, Lilith K. Whittles, John A. Lees, Sangeeta Bhatia, Edward S. Knock, Lucy Okell, Hannah C. Slater, Azra C. Ghani, Patrick G. T. Walker, Okefu Oyale Okoko, Thomas S. Churcher
Abstract: The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising1. In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-22,3. Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed4. Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)5, with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000–119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.