德国不莱梅大学Hans-Otto Pörtner、Flemming T. Dahlke等研究人员合作发现，鱼类生命周期中对于温度的敏感性决定了气候的影响。相关论文于2020年7月3日发表在《科学》杂志上。

通过使用观测、实验和系统发育数据，研究人员评估了来自所有气候区的694种海洋和淡水鱼种的特定阶段热耐受性指标。这些分析表明，产卵成鱼和胚胎始终比幼虫和非生殖成鱼具有更窄的耐受范围，并且最容易受到气候变暖的影响。阶段特定热耐受性的顺序与氧限制假说相对应，这表明心肺（有氧）能力的个体发生变化与对极端温度的耐受性之间存在机制联系。

研究人员提出了生理速率（发育和耗氧量）对温度的依赖性与热耐受范围之间的对数逆相关性，从而反映了热适应中的基本的能量平衡。气候预测分析考虑了最关键的生命阶段（产卵鱼和胚胎），从而清楚地确定了繁殖的温度要求是鱼类生命周期的关键瓶颈。

到2100年，根据随后的共享社会经济途径（SSP），水温可能影响的物种百分比超出其繁殖极限的范围，从约10％（SSP 1–1.9）到约60％（SSP 5–8.5）。因此，实现气候目标（SSP 1–1.9）可能会使许多鱼类和依赖渔业的人们受益。

据悉，物种对气候变化的脆弱性取决于对温度最敏感的生命阶段，但是对于鱼类等主要动物而言，生命周期的瓶颈通常没有明确定义。

附：英文原文

Title: Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climate vulnerability of fish

Author: Flemming T. Dahlke, Sylke Wohlrab, Martin Butzin, Hans-Otto Prtner

Issue&Volume: 2020/07/03

Abstract: Species’ vulnerability to climate change depends on the most temperature-sensitive life stages, but for major animal groups such as fish, life cycle bottlenecks are often not clearly defined. We used observational, experimental, and phylogenetic data to assess stage-specific thermal tolerance metrics for 694 marine and freshwater fish species from all climate zones. Our analysis shows that spawning adults and embryos consistently have narrower tolerance ranges than larvae and nonreproductive adults and are most vulnerable to climate warming. The sequence of stage-specific thermal tolerance corresponds with the oxygen-limitation hypothesis, suggesting a mechanistic link between ontogenetic changes in cardiorespiratory (aerobic) capacity and tolerance to temperature extremes. A logarithmic inverse correlation between the temperature dependence of physiological rates (development and oxygen consumption) and thermal tolerance range is proposed to reflect a fundamental, energetic trade-off in thermal adaptation. Scenario-based climate projections considering the most critical life stages (spawners and embryos) clearly identify the temperature requirements for reproduction as a critical bottleneck in the life cycle of fish. By 2100, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario followed, the percentages of species potentially affected by water temperatures exceeding their tolerance limit for reproduction range from ~10% (SSP 1–1.9) to ~60% (SSP 5–8.5). Efforts to meet ambitious climate targets (SSP 1–1.9) could therefore benefit many fish species and people who depend on healthy fish stocks.

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz3658

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6499/65