法国巴黎大学Nicolas Hoertel等研究人员对新冠病毒（SARS-CoV-2 ）在法国的大流行进行了建模分析。该研究于2020年7月14日在线发表在《自然—医学》上。

Title: A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France

Author: Nicolas Hoertel, Martin Blachier, Carlos Blanco, Mark Olfson, Marc Massetti, Marina Snchez Rico, Frdric Limosin, Henri Leleu

Issue&Volume: 2020-07-14

Abstract: Many European countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by implementing nationwide protection measures and lockdowns1. However, the epidemic could rebound when such measures are relaxed, possibly leading to a requirement for a second or more, repeated lockdowns2. Here, we present results of a stochastic agent-based microsimulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic in France. We examined the potential impact of post-lockdown measures, including physical distancing, mask-wearing and shielding individuals who are the most vulnerable to severe COVID-19 infection, on cumulative disease incidence and mortality, and on intensive care unit (ICU)-bed occupancy. While lockdown is effective in containing the viral spread, once lifted, regardless of duration, it would be unlikely to prevent a rebound. Both physical distancing and mask-wearing, although effective in slowing the epidemic and in reducing mortality, would also be ineffective in ultimately preventing ICUs from becoming overwhelmed and a subsequent second lockdown. However, these measures coupled with the shielding of vulnerable people would be associated with better outcomes, including lower mortality and maintaining an adequate ICU capacity to prevent a second lockdown. Benefits would nonetheless be markedly reduced if most people do not adhere to these measures, or if they are not maintained for a sufficiently long period. 

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-1001-6

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1001-6