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研究分析COVID-19在美国国内的疾病与医疗负担
作者:小柯机器人 发布时间:2020/6/17 21:53:43

近日,美国普林斯顿大学Ian F. Miller等研究人员分析了COVID-19在美国国内的疾病与医疗负担。这一研究成果于2020年6月16日在线发表在《自然—医学》上。

研究人员将特定年龄的死亡率模式与人口统计数据结合使用,来揭示COVID-19的累积病例负担以及随后对医疗资源负担的相关性。这些分析是在美国整个县级进行的,并假设在每个县有20%的人口感染。研究人员通过一系列有关传播方式的假设(例如基本繁殖率、接触方式和检疫功效),确定了相对于美国其他地区可能会受到持续严重影响的县。
 
研究人员观察到一种通用模式,即远离主要人口中心的人均疾病负担和相对医疗系统需求可能最高。这些发现强调了确保向主要城市地区以外的社区进行公平、适当地分配医疗和公共卫生资源的重要性。
 
SARS-CoV-2流行病威胁到医疗体系不堪重负,目前需要确定那些疾病负担相对于其他地区可能较高的地区,这对于确保有效地分配紧急医疗和公共卫生资源至关重要。在全球范围内,人们一直观察到COVID-19相关严重后果的风险随着年龄的增长而增加。
 
附:英文原文

Title: Disease and healthcare burden of COVID-19 in the United States

Author: Ian F. Miller, Alexander D. Becker, Bryan T. Grenfell, C. Jessica E. Metcalf

Issue&Volume: 2020-06-16

Abstract: The epidemic threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems, and identifying those regions where the disease burden is likely to be high relative to the rest of the country is critical for enabling prudent and effective distribution of emergency medical care and public health resources. Globally, the risk of severe outcomes associated with COVID-19 has consistently been observed to increase with age2,3. We used age-specific mortality patterns in tandem with demographic data to map projections of the cumulative case burden of COVID-19 and the subsequent burden on healthcare resources. The analysis was performed at the county level across the United States, assuming a scenario in which 20% of the population of each county acquires infection. We identified counties that will probably be consistently, heavily affected relative to the rest of the country across a range of assumptions about transmission patterns, such as the basic reproductive rate, contact patterns and the efficacy of quarantine. We observed a general pattern that per capita disease burden and relative healthcare system demand may be highest away from major population centers. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring equitable and adequate allocation of medical care and public health resources to communities outside of major urban areas. 

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0952-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0952-y

期刊信息

Nature Medicine:《自然—医学》,创刊于1995年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团,最新IF:30.641
官方网址:https://www.nature.com/nm/
投稿链接:https://mts-nmed.nature.com/cgi-bin/main.plex