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研究揭示气候在新冠病毒大流行中的作用
作者:小柯机器人 发布时间:2020/5/20 20:44:40

近日,美国普林斯顿大学Rachel E. Baker等研究人员揭示气候在新冠病毒(SARS-CoV-2)大流行中的作用。相关论文于2020年5月18日在线发表在《科学》杂志上。

研究人员使用基于气候的流行病模型来模拟了SARS-CoV-2大流行,从而根据已知的冠状病毒知识调查不同的情况。研究人员发现,尽管天气变化可能对地方性感染很重要,但在新病原体的大流行阶段,气候只会使大流行的规模发生一定程度的变化。对非药物控制措施的初步分析表明,它们可以减缓大流行与气候的相互作用。
 
这些发现表明,如果没有有效的控制措施,则在更潮湿的气候下可能会爆发强烈的疫情,而夏季天气将不会明显限制大流行的增长。
 
据悉,初步证据表明,气候可能会调节SARS-CoV-2的传播。 鉴于高度的易感性是主要驱动因素,目前尚不清楚气候的季节和地理变化是否会大大改变大流行的轨迹。
 
附:英文原文

Title: Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Author: Rachel E. Baker, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell

Issue&Volume: 2020/05/18

Abstract: Abstract Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of non-pharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction via susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest, without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abc2535

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/15/science.abc2535

期刊信息
Science:《科学》,创刊于1880年。隶属于美国科学促进会,最新IF:41.037