近日,美国普林斯顿大学Rachel E. Baker等研究人员揭示气候在新冠病毒(SARS-CoV-2)大流行中的作用。相关论文于2020年5月18日在线发表在《科学》杂志上。
Title: Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Author: Rachel E. Baker, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell
Issue&Volume: 2020/05/18
Abstract: Abstract Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of non-pharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction via susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest, without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.
DOI: 10.1126/science.abc2535
Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/15/science.abc2535