英国伦敦卫生与热带医学院Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera研究小组取得一项新突破。他们研究了臭氧暴露和短期死亡率之间的联系。该研究2020年2月10日发表于国际一流学术期刊《英国医学杂志》上。

为了评估全球多个城市臭氧暴露的短期死亡率和超额死亡率，研究组收集了1985年至2015年间20个国家406个城市登记的全因死亡或外因死亡，并对每日总死亡率进行评估。

406个城市共有45165171人死亡。臭氧平均每日增加10μg/m³，总相对死亡率风险为1.0018。不同国家之间存在异质性，其中英国、南非、爱沙尼亚和加拿大的相对风险预计超过1.0020，而墨西哥和西班牙却不到1.0008。

臭氧暴露超过最大背景值（70μg/m³）时，短期超额死亡率为0.26%，相当于研究的406个城市中每年有8203人超额死亡。而当限制超过世卫组织（WHO）指南（100μg/m³）的天数时，超额死亡率保持为0.20%，相当于每年有6262人超额死亡。

而当超过欧洲、美国和中国空气质量标准时，超额死亡率分别为0.14%、0.09%和0.05%。

总之，在更严格的空气质量标准下，臭氧相关死亡率有可能降低。这些发现对制定国际气候战略具有现实意义。

附：英文原文

Title: Short term association between ozone and mortality: global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20 countries

Author: Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera, Francesco Sera, Cong Liu, Ben Armstrong, Ai Milojevic, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Eric Lavigne, Jan Kysely, Ale Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Mathilde Pascal, Veronika Huber, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni, Evangelia Samoli, Massimo Stafoggia, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Magali Hurtado-Diaz, Julio Cruz, Susana Silva, Joana Madureira, Noah Scovronick, Rebecca M. Garland, Ho Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen íiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Christofer strm, Martina S Ragettli, Martin Rsli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Bing-Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Michelle L Bell, Haidong Kan, Antonio Gasparrini

Issue&Volume: 2020/02/10

Abstract:

Objective To assess short term mortality risks and excess mortality associated with exposure to ozone in several cities worldwide.

Design Two stage time series analysis.

Setting 406 cities in 20 countries, with overlapping periods between 1985 and 2015, collected from the database of Multi-City Multi-Country Collaborative Research Network.

Population Deaths for all causes or for external causes only registered in each city within the study period.

Main outcome measures Daily total mortality (all or non-external causes only).

Results A total of 45165171 deaths were analysed in the 406 cities. On average, a 10 μg/m3 increase in ozone during the current and previous day was associated with an overall relative risk of mortality of 1.0018 (95% confidence interval 1.0012 to 1.0024). Some heterogeneity was found across countries, with estimates ranging from greater than 1.0020 in the United Kingdom, South Africa, Estonia, and Canada to less than 1.0008 in Mexico and Spain. Short term excess mortality in association with exposure to ozone higher than maximum background levels (70 μg/m3) was 0.26% (95% confidence interval 0.24% to 0.28%), corresponding to 8203 annual excess deaths (95% confidence interval 3525 to 12840) across the 406 cities studied. The excess remained at 0.20% (0.18% to 0.22%) when restricting to days above the WHO guideline (100 μg/m3), corresponding to 6262 annual excess deaths (1413 to 11?065). Above more lenient thresholds for air quality standards in Europe, America, and China, excess mortality was 0.14%, 0.09%, and 0.05%, respectively.

Conclusions Results suggest that ozone related mortality could be potentially reduced under stricter air quality standards. These findings have relevance for the implementation of efficient clean air interventions and mitigation strategies designed within national and international climate policies.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m108

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m108