复旦大学余宏杰团队研究了全球、地区和国家对covid-19疫苗接种目标人群规模的估计。2020年12月15日，该研究发表在《英国医学杂志》上。

为了提供全球、地区和国家对Covid-19疫苗接种目标人群规模的估计，以在全球范围内为特定国家的免疫策略提供信息，研究组针对194个世界卫生组织成员国进行了一项描述性研究。根据国家的特定特征和疫苗目标，来确定针对covid-19疫苗接种的目标人群。主要结局指标为covid-19疫苗接种目标人群的规模。

Covid-19疫苗接种的目标人群规模因疫苗接种目标和地理区域而异。人口结构、患有基础疾病和一线工人人数的差异导致地区和国家层面对目标人口的估计相差很大。尤其是欧洲的一线工人（6300万，8.9%）和有基础疾病的人（2.659亿，37.4%）所占比例最高；这两类措施分别对维持社会功能和减少严重新冠肺炎至关重要。

相比之下，东南亚的健康成年人比例最高（7.775亿，58.9％），这是减少社区传播的主要目标。纠结是否接种疫苗可能会影响未来的covid-19疫苗接种计划；根据文献综述，全球人口中有68.4％愿意接种covid-19疫苗。因此，愿意接种疫苗的成年人口估计为37亿。

总之，在国家和地区层面分配目标群体突出表明，必须为疫苗优先分配制定一项公平有效的计划。每个国家应根据当地的流行病学、基本的人口健康状况、可用疫苗剂量的预测以及对可直接或间接获益的疫苗接种策略的偏好，来评估不同的策略和分配方案。

附：英文原文

Title: Global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for covid-19 vaccination: descriptive study

Author: Wei Wang, Qianhui Wu, Juan Yang, Kaige Dong, Xinghui Chen, Xufang Bai, Xinhua Chen, Zhiyuan Chen, Cécile Viboud, Marco Ajelli, Hongjie Yu

Issue&Volume: 2020/12/15

Abstract:

Objective To provide global, regional, and national estimates of target population sizes for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) vaccination to inform country specific immunisation strategies on a global scale.

Design Descriptive study.

Setting 194 member states of the World Health Organization.

Population Target populations for covid-19 vaccination based on country specific characteristics and vaccine objectives (maintaining essential core societal services; reducing severe covid-19; reducing symptomatic infections and stopping virus transmission).

Main outcome measure Size of target populations for covid-19 vaccination. Estimates use country specific data on population sizes stratified by occupation, age, risk factors for covid-19 severity, vaccine acceptance, and global vaccine production. These data were derived from a multipronged search of official websites, media sources, and academic journal articles.

Results Target population sizes for covid-19 vaccination vary markedly by vaccination goal and geographical region. Differences in demographic structure, presence of underlying conditions, and number of essential workers lead to highly variable estimates of target populations at regional and country levels. In particular, Europe has the highest share of essential workers (63.0 million, 8.9%) and people with underlying conditions (265.9 million, 37.4%); these two categories are essential in maintaining societal functions and reducing severe covid-19, respectively. In contrast, South East Asia has the highest share of healthy adults (777.5 million, 58.9%), a key target for reducing community transmission. Vaccine hesitancy will probably impact future covid-19 vaccination programmes; based on a literature review, 68.4% (95% confidence interval 64.2% to 72.6%) of the global population is willing to receive covid-19 vaccination. Therefore, the adult population willing to be vaccinated is estimated at 3.7 billion (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 4.1 billion).

Conclusions The distribution of target groups at country and regional levels highlights the importance of designing an equitable and efficient plan for vaccine prioritisation and allocation. Each country should evaluate different strategies and allocation schemes based on local epidemiology, underlying population health, projections of available vaccine doses, and preference for vaccination strategies that favour direct or indirect benefits.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m4704

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4704