巴西圣保罗大学Ester C. Sabino、Nuno R. Faria等研究人员合作发现，SARS-CoV-2在巴西亚马逊的感染率可达人群的四分之三。2020年12月8日，《科学》杂志在线发表了这项研究成果。

研究人员使用便利的献血者样本发现，到6月，即亚马逊州首府玛瑙斯疫情高峰后的一个月，有44％的人口具有可检测的IgG抗体。校正没有可检测到的抗体反应和抗体减弱的病例，研究人员估计6月份的感染率为66％，10月份上升到76％。这高于巴西东南部的圣保罗，那里十月份的感染率估计为29％。

这些结果证实，如果控制不善，COVID-19可以感染大部分人群，从而导致高死亡率。

附：英文原文

Title: Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic

Author: Lewis F. Buss, Carlos A. Prete, Claudia M. M. Abrahim, Alfredo Mendrone, Tassila Salomon, Cesar de Almeida-Neto, Rafael F. O. Frana, Maria C. Belotti, Maria P. S. S. Carvalho, Allyson G. Costa, Myuki A. E. Crispim, Suzete C. Ferreira, Nelson A. Fraiji, Susie Gurzenda, Charles Whittaker, Leonardo T. Kamaura, Pedro L. Takecian, Pedro da Silva Peixoto, Marcio K. Oikawa, Anna S. Nishiya, Vanderson Rocha, Nanci A. Salles, Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos, Martirene A. da Silva, Brian Custer, Kris V. Parag, Manoel Barral-Netto, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Rafael H. M. Pereira, Oliver G. Pybus, Michael P. Busch, Márcia C. Castro, Christopher Dye, Vitor H. Nascimento, Nuno R. Faria, Ester C. Sabino

Issue&Volume: 2020/12/08

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly in the Brazilian Amazon and the attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of a largely unmitigated epidemic. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June, one month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, capital of Amazonas state, 44% of the population had detectable IgG antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in So Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October is 29%. These results confirm that, when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a high fraction of the population causing high mortality.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abe9728

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728