美国南佛罗里达大学Jeremy M. Cohen研究组取得最新进展。气候变暖对跨气候区域的野生动植物疾病风险的影响不同。相关论文于2020年11月20日发表于国际顶尖学术期刊《科学》。

他们汇集了一个全球时空数据集，描述了7346个野生动植物种群和2021个宿主-寄生虫组合中的寄生虫患病率，并在每个位置汇总了当地的天气和气候记录。他们发现，如热失配假设所预测的，来自冷和温暖气候的寄主分别在异常温暖和冷的温度下会增加的疾病风险。这种效应在吸热寄主中最大，而在陆地和淡水系统中则类似。

根据气候变化模型的预测表明，来自温带和热带地区的放热野生动植物寄主可能分别经历疾病风险的急剧增加和适度减少，尽管这些变化的幅度取决于寄生虫本身。

据悉，尽管仍不清楚气候变化如何改变不同地理区域的疾病动态，但近几十年来野生生物中的疾病暴发与气候变化一起激增。

附：英文原文

Title: Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates

Author: Jeremy M. Cohen, Erin L. Sauer, Olivia Santiago, Samuel Spencer, Jason R. Rohr

Issue&Volume: 2020/11/20

Abstract: Disease outbreaks among wildlife have surged in recent decades alongside climate change, although it remains unclear how climate change alters disease dynamics across different geographic regions. We amassed a global, spatiotemporal dataset describing parasite prevalence across 7346 wildlife populations and 2021 host-parasite combinations, compiling local weather and climate records at each location. We found that hosts from cool and warm climates experienced increased disease risk at abnormally warm and cool temperatures, respectively, as predicted by the thermal mismatch hypothesis. This effect was greatest in ectothermic hosts and similar in terrestrial and freshwater systems. Projections based on climate change models indicate that ectothermic wildlife hosts from temperate and tropical zones may experience sharp increases and moderate reductions in disease risk, respectively, though the magnitude of these changes depends on parasite identity.

DOI: 10.1126/science.abb1702

Source: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6519/eabb1702