复旦大学阚海东小组分析了652个城市大气颗粒物污染和每日死亡率的相关性。 相关论文于2019年8月22日发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》上。

该小组评估了空气动力学直径不超过10μm（PM10）和不超过2.5μm（PM2.5）的可吸入颗粒物与多个国家或地区的每日全因、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率的关系。从24个国家或地区的652个城市收集每日死亡率和空气污染数据，使用具有随机效应荟萃分析的超分散广义加性模型来研究这些相关性。

PM10浓度两天移动平均值（当日和前一天的平均值） 每立方米增加10μg，每日全因死亡率增长0.44%，心血管死亡率增长0.36%，呼吸道死亡率增长0.47%。PM2.5浓度发生相同变化时，每日全因死亡率增长0.68%，心血管死亡率增长0.55%，每日呼吸道死亡率增长0.74%。在对空气污染物进行校正后，该相关性仍然显著。 而在年均PM浓度较低和年均温度较高的地区，该相关性更为显著。

综上，全球600多个城市的PM10和PM2.5短期暴露与每日全因、心血管和呼吸系统死亡率之间存在独立相关性。这些数据进一步证实了区域死亡率与PM浓度有关。

研究人员表示，对空气污染时间序列研究结果的系统性评价受到模型规格和公布偏倚差异的挑战。

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阚海东，复旦大学公共卫生学院教授、博士生导师。研究方向：环境流行病学（空气污染与健康，全球气候变化与健康）。（据复旦大学）

附：英文原文

Title: Ambient Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in 652 Cities

Author:Cong Liu, M.S., Renjie Chen, Ph.D., Francesco Sera, Ph.D., Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Ph.D., Yuming Guo, Ph.D., Shilu Tong, Ph.D., Micheline S.Z.S. Coelho, Ph.D., Paulo H.N. Saldiva, Ph.D., Eric Lavigne, Ph.D., Patricia Matus, Ph.D., Nicolas Valdes Ortega, M.Sc., Samuel Osorio Garcia, Ph.D., Mathilde Pascal, Ph.D., Massimo Stafoggia, Ph.D., Matteo Scortichini, Ph.D., Masahiro Hashizume, Ph.D., Yasushi Honda, Ph.D., Magali Hurtado-Díaz, Ph.D., Julio Cruz, Ph.D., Baltazar Nunes, Ph.D., João P. Teixeira, Ph.D., Ho Kim, Ph.D., Aurelio Tobias, Ph.D., Carmen Íñiguez, Ph.D., Bertil Forsberg, Ph.D., Christofer Åström, Ph.D., Martina S. Ragettli, Ph.D., Yue-Leon Guo, Ph.D., Bing-Yu Chen, Ph.D., Michelle L. Bell, Ph.D., Caradee Y. Wright, Ph.D., Noah Scovronick, Ph.D., Rebecca M. Garland, Ph.D., Ai Milojevic, Ph.D., Jan Kyselý, Ph.D., Aleš Urban, Ph.D., Hans Orru, Ph.D., Ene Indermitte, Ph.D., Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Ph.D., Niilo R.I. Ryti, Ph.D., Klea Katsouyanni, Ph.D., Antonis Analitis, Ph.D., Antonella Zanobetti, Ph.D., Joel Schwartz, Ph.D., Jianmin Chen, Ph.D., Tangchun Wu, Ph.D., Aaron Cohen, D.Sc., Antonio Gasparrini, Ph.D., and Haidong Kan, Ph.D.

Issue&Volume: Vol 381 No 7, 22 August 2019

Abstract:

Background

The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias.

Methods

We evaluated the associations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀) and fine PM with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM_2.5) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration–response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived.

Results

On average, an increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the 2-day moving average of PM₁₀ concentration, which represents the average over the current and previous day, was associated with increases of 0.44% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.50) in daily all-cause mortality, 0.36% (95% CI, 0.30 to 0.43) in daily cardiovascular mortality, and 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.58) in daily respiratory mortality. The corresponding increases in daily mortality for the same change in PM_2.5 concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration–response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations.

Conclusions

Our data show independent associations between short-term exposure to PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.)

DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa1817364

Source: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1817364