近日，加拿大约克大学教授Mathieu JP Poirier及其课题组对1970年至2015年71个国家的烟草消费量进行了估算，通过系统性收集可比数据，以促进对国家和全球烟草控制干预措施进行准实验性评估。 相关论文发表在2019年6月19日出版的《英国医学杂志》杂志上。

研究者检索了1970-2015年，全球214个国家中的71个国家的烟草消费数据，这些国家的烟草消费量占全球烟草消费量的95%以上，人口占世界人口的85%。数据质量通过两个研究小组成员的重复调研进行了评价，对政府官方数据来源给予最大重视。所有数据按照每个国家每年烟草消费进行标准化，所有数据质量与来源细节都有备份，所有收集数据和元数据通过开放数据库可自由获取。分析结果表明，在过去30年里，大多数国家的香烟消费量都出现了下降，但各国具体消费的趋势变化很大。这些研究发现强调了数据展示需要更加可靠的流程，理想情况下，应当将其建设成国际法律文书或其它强制执行流程。为了监测《世界卫生组织烟草控制框架条约》，国家烟草生产，交易和销售有关数据应当定期收集和开放报导。

据报道，烟草消费是世界上主要的可预防死亡原因之一，每年有600万例可预防死亡。在本研究之前，公开的卷烟消费数据有限，一些数据不适用于准实验性影响评估(模型数据)、一些数据是由公司私人持有(专有数据)，或一些数据广泛分布于许多国家统计机构和研究机构(分类数据)。 研究者为了收集、估量、选择和报告自1970年来最可能获得的国家烟草消费量估算，对可比数据进行了系统性收集。

附：英文原文

Title: Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions

Author: Steven J Hoffman, professor,  Jessica Mammone, research assistant,  Susan Rogers Van Katwyk, managing research fellow,  Lathika Sritharan, research manager,  Maxwell Tran, research assistant,  Safa Al-Khateeb, research assistant,  Andrej Grjibovski, coordinator,  Elliot Gunn, research assistant, Sara Kamali-Anaraki, research assistant, Ben Li, research assistant,  Mathura Mahendren, research assistant,  Yasmeen Mansoor, research assistant,  Navneet Natt, research assistant,  Ejike Nwokoro, coordinator,  Harkanwal Randhawa, research assistant,  Melodie Yunju Song, research assistant,  Kelsey Vercammen, research assistant,  Carolyne Wang, research assistant,  Julia Woo, research assistant,  Mathieu JP Poirier, assistant professor

Issue&Volume: vol 365,issue 8204,2019

Abstract:

Objectives To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970.

Design Systematic collection of comparable data.

Setting and population 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population.

Main outcome measures Validated cigarette consumption data covering 1970-2015 were identified for 71 countries. Data quality appraisal was conducted by two research team members in duplicate, with greatest weight given to official government sources. All data were standardised into units of cigarettes consumed per year in each country, a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared, and all collected data and metadata were made freely available in an open access dataset.

Results Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations.

Conclusions Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited; they have been inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l2231

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l2231