论文标题： A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets

期刊：Nature Communications

作者：E. E. Koks, J. Rozenberg, C. Zorn, M. Tariverdi, M. Vousdoukas, S. A. Fraser, J. W. Hall, S. Hallegatte

发表时间：2019/06/25

数字识别码： 10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3

原文链接：http://t.cn/Ai0zszJr

微信链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YIs4f-yBZ8-2sCfUEzzbAw

根据《自然-通讯》发表的一篇论文 A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets ，每年全球因自然灾害造成的公路和铁路基础设施损坏成本平均约达146亿美元。模型研究显示，约73%的损坏源自地表洪灾（由极端降雨引起）和河水洪灾。

图1：全球交通基础设施的多种灾害暴露情况。图源：Koks

英国牛津大学的Elco Koks及同事使用全球公路及铁路资产数据和灾害地图，计算了交通基础设施所面临的自然灾害暴露程度和风险，这些灾害包括热带气旋、地震、地表洪灾、河水洪灾和沿海洪灾。作者发现，全球约27%的交通基础设施至少暴露在一种灾害之下，每年全球所受的损坏成本估计在31亿-220亿美元。诸如巴布亚新几内亚之类的小岛屿发展中国家，其交通基础设施尤其易受这些灾害的影响。虽然绝对损失额在高收入国家中最高，如中国和日本，但是中等收入国家，如格鲁吉亚和缅甸，面临的损失相对于其GDP更大。

作者认为各国应在相关评估中纳入风险信息，以改善交通规划。通过有针对性地强化关键资产，预防自然灾害对其造成损坏，有助于使所有资产的支出最小化。

摘要：Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which ~73% is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1% of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on ~60% of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.

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（来源：科学网）